Energy Industry

DrumBeat: July 4, 2009

Sat, 04 Jul 2009 14:47:34 GMT

The problem is Rubin never quite gets around to discussing how $150/barrel oil will affect us except to say that we will all have to consume less and in reduced variety. And there are a lot of people who won't stand for that. What happens then? It's the thorny question that can't help but creep into the reader's mind when faced with the starkness of Rubin's analysis.
Without this level of analysis, the book never rises much past the level of highly competent pop culture screed, probably destined to compete ably against similar doomsday books. And there's nothing wrong with that, but given the gravity of the consequences both mentioned and unmentioned, Your World needs to be so much more.

Ghana: Fuel shortage hits parts of Accra

Fuel shortage has hit parts of the capital Accra. A number of fuel stations visited by Joy News had run out of the product.
The few stations that had the product said they managed to get some after waiting for days for their supplies.
Motorists who spoke to Joy News from long queues expressed their frustrations over the situation.

Demand for shingles is through the roof

Roof shingles are harder to get these days in Huntsville, and it's not a symptom of the city's growing pains.
The price of asphalt, the main component in shingles, has risen. Then an April hailstorm damaged hundreds of roofs in the area, creating higher demand for roof repair and replacement.

World`s largest cement firms slash production emissions by a third

Efforts by the world's leading cement companies knocked down carbon dioxide emissions from the industry's manufacturing process by 35 per cent even while production climbed by 53 per cent, according to the World Business Council for Sustainable Development's Cement Sustainability Initiative.

Flood (review)

After years as hostages, locked away in the basements of a war-torn Spain and handed from one extremist faction to another, Lily, Piers, Gary and Helen emerge to a much-changed world. It's raining most of the time, sea levels are rising faster than anticipated and storms have become more extreme. Returning to London just as the Thames Barrier is about to be breached for the first time, they discover that flooding is becoming a way of life and the world is drowning faster than climate models predicted.

Swimming in natural gas

At a recent presentation to money managers in Canada's oil and gas heartland, the chief executive of a major Calgary-based energy trust used an interesting choice of words to describe natural gas. He referred to the commodity as a "wasted byproduct."
The suggestion that natural gas is worthless may be extreme, but it is an indication of the challenge the industry faces. Market experts continue to expect weak prices for natural gas as a surge in unconventional gas discoveries, such as shale plays, pour on to an already-flooded market. Add in unpredictable weather and a slower-than-forecast economic recovery, and the outlook doesn't get much brighter.

PetroChina Forecasts Gas Glut on Increased Output

(Bloomberg) -- China, the world?s second-biggest energy consumer, may face a ?short-term? natural gas oversupply after 2010 because of increased domestic output and imports of the fuel, a PetroChina Co. official said.
Natural gas supply in China may increase by an average 20 billion cubic meters a year starting 2010, Ma Xinhua, deputy head of PetroChina?s exploration and development unit, said at an energy conference in Beijing today. The nation should boost its capacity to store the fuel for emergency use, Ma said.

Saudi set to cut Asia crude prices

SINGAPORE: Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia will cut or keep steady the official selling prices (OSPs) of most of its crudes to Asia for next month as refining margins come under pressure, refiners and traders polled said yesterday.
The eight refiners and traders polled expected Arab Heavy's discount to Oman/Dubai to be widened, and none forecast Arab Light or Extra Light's premiums to rise further.

China holds speculators responsible for causing oil price fluctuations

BEIJING, July 4 (APP): A growing number of speculators in the oil market have exacerbated the uncertainty in oil prices, Zhang Guobao, director of the National Energy Administration (NEA) was quoted as saying by Saturday?s China Daily.?The change in oil price cannot truly reflect the demand,? said Zhang, adding that ?The hot money flow should be regulated more strictly.?
Many experts have been saying that the money pouring into the oil patch from mutual funds, traders, hedge funds and other financial players are pushing up oil prices.
The inflow of hot money, or investments by speculative institutional investors, is the main reason for the recent fluctuation in oil prices, the senior Chinese official told the Global Think Tank Summit Friday.

Total, Iran gas talks 'at standstill'

Total's negotiations with Tehran on a multi-billion dollar contract to develop a major Iranian gas field are at a standstill, the head of the French oil major said.
'They (negotiations) have not been broken and they have not been resumed either. They are not in a very advanced state,' chief executive Christophe de Margerie told journalists on the sidelines of an economic forum in southern France.

Russia's State Duma approves Russia-China oil co-op agreement

MOSCOW (Xinhua) -- Russia's State Duma, the lower house of parliament, approved on Friday a Russia-China intergovernmental agreement on oil cooperation, the Itar-Tass news agency reported.
The agreement, which envisions long-term Russian oil supplies to China, was signed by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin and Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan in April.

Iran planning to invest $70 billion in gasfields

TEHRAN: Iran plans to invest around $70 billion in two major offshore natural gasfields in the 2010-15 period, a senior official said yesterday. Seifollah Jashnsaz, managing director of the state National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), said Iran would invest $40 billion to complete remaining projects in the South Pars field during the fifth five-year economic plan, which runs until 2015.
He did not say how Iran, which is also the world's fifth-largest oil exporter, would finance the investments.

Uganda: Norway Team Calls for Transparency in Oil Management

Kampala ? THE Government should be transparent on issues of oil resources to avoid suspicion, visiting Norwegian officials have advised.
Appearing before the finance committee on Tuesday, the delegation warned that if there is no transparency from the beginning, the discovery could easily become a curse.

CNOOC Parent May Bid for Iraqi Oilfields, Fu Says

(Bloomberg) -- China National Offshore Oil Corp., the nation?s third-biggest oil explorer, may continue to bid for oilfields in Iraq after the Gulf country awarded a contract to its bigger rival, China National Petroleum Corp.

Nigeria runs out of crude

The Nigerian Government on Wednesday admitted that it had no more crude for its refineries to process for local consumption. The effects of militancy in the Niger Delta in Nigeria and the Federal Government's clampdown on them have shaken the foundation of the oil and gas industry in that country.

PDVSA halts process to grant new Orinoco E&P licenses: sources

Caracas (Platts) - Venezuela's PDVSA has halted the process to grant new licenses to explore, produce and upgrade extra heavy crude in the Orinoco, according to local media and industry sources.
Caracas daily El Universal published a report in its Thursday edition saying PDVSA had notified all 19 interested bidders -- a short list that included Chevron, Shell, Gazprom, Statoil and Total -- that the process had been halted "until further notice." An industry source in Caracas also said that the process had been halted.

Pdvsa requests payment of debts to solve financial troubles

Amidst financial problems, the state-run oil company Petr?leos de Venezuela is asking foreign companies to repay their debts under energy supply agreements.

China's CNPC, CNOOC square off for Repsol's YPF - sources

HONG KONG (Reuters) - China National Offshore Oil Corp Ltd (CNOOC) and state-run China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) are battling for approval to bid for the Argentinian unit of Spanish oil major Repsol (REP.MC), sources said on Friday, in a deal that could be worth around $17 billion.

Pipeline blasts leave nerves frayed in B.C.

VANCOUVER?It had been quiet for six months, but the peace of northeastern British Columbia has again been shattered.
Another bombing rocked the region this week, at a wellhead operated by gas producing giant EnCana. An EnCana worker noticed debris and a small leak in the well during a routine check of the wellhead, about eight kilometres south of Dawson Creek, early Wednesday morning. The closest residence is about three kilometres away.

Why China is stockpiling gold & base metals

Peak oil is here in the very near future. Many of the big oil producing regions have already passed peaks. Don?t forget, the United States was the world?s largest oil producer for a period, but production has fallen way down. Experts who follow this industry are very clear that the peak is not too far away?at most a dozen years, but more likely much sooner. The pace of new discoveries has fallen way off over recent years. It takes an enormous amount of new drilling to simply replace depletion. Production from existing wells declines steadily. Production won?t drop off suddenly, but it will certainly stop rising. Demand is continuing to rise and we are so complacent about oil production continuing to rise.

Ottawa Commits Funds To Clean Energy

EDMONTON -The federal government will spend $1-billion over the next five years on clean-energy research and demonstration projects, with an emphasis on reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

Bugging Out

Simon Beer has spent the past five years trying to convince himself that the Apocalypse will be fun. Not that he calls it the Apocalypse. His fellow survivalists call it TEOFTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It) or the Long Emergency, the Collapse, the Shift or the Event, as in, "There may be marauding bands of cannibals post-Event." But Simon doesn't call it anything at all. "I guess I'd call it ?When the oil runs out'," he says. "I don't really have a name for it." So far this nameless thing has been far from fun: it has cost him his job, his relationship and his health, and it hasn't even started yet.

(An older story, but I think it just came out from behind a paywall.)

The Seven Ways To Solve The Energy Problem

I have dished out a healthy share of criticism about the paths we are taking into the energy future, so perhaps it?s time I offered some paths of my own. I will outline them as simply as possible, since the data and thinking behind them could fill a book.

Staying Power: A commitment to conservation is starting to pay off for this entrepreneur

On the wall in the reception area at Building Energy in Williston is a quote from Albert Einstein that reads: ?The amount of sunlight reaching the earth?s surface is 6,000 times the amount of energy used by all human beings worldwide. The total amount of fossil fuel used by humans since the start of civilization is equivalent to less than 30 days of sunshine.?
It?s exactly the kind of thing that anyone who has spent time with Scott Gardner, the founder and president of Building Energy, would expect to find.

Refusing to multiply

he headlines are swine flu, terrorism and climate change, but economists know that the real threat to our way of life is the reluctance of women to produce lots of babies.
Well, not just any women. This is about women in the industrialized West. In poor parts of the world women have plenty of children. Unfortunately, they can't afford them.
Here in the wealthy West we can afford to have more children but we don't. It's the population paradox.

How to save the world by shopping

Or, how to save the world by shopping. Goleman, renowned author of Emotional Intelligence and probable future author of Entomological Intelligence, has little patience with critiques of corporatism. "By imagining some disembodied power that has victimised us - 'those greedy corporations,' say - we avoid having to examine our own impacts," he tuts (though Rushkoff, reasonably, thinks we can do both).

Protesters who stopped coal train found guilty

Twenty-two environmental protesters who ambushed a train as it took coal to the largest power station in Europe were found guilty of obstructing the railway.

Preparing for a Sea Change

But it was Bildt's description of a relatively new hot topic -- the strategic consequences of climate change -- that galvanized my attention when he spoke here to the Council for the United States and Italy. The rapid melting of the Arctic ice sheet at the North Pole will bring "revolutionary new transport possibilities between the Atlantic and the Pacific," he told the gathering, expanding that thought for me later in an interview.
Bildt is not alone in studying the geopolitical consequences of climate change at the top of the world and elsewhere. The U.S. and Russian navies are also looking hard at how the projected disappearance of polar "summer ice" in a decade or two will influence their strategy and maritime practices and perhaps alter a relationship that is still marked by big-power rivalry and distrust.

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Sat, 04 Jul 2009 18:18:50 GMT

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EU resolve hardens as British workers face Iran show trial

Sat, 04 Jul 2009 00:00:37 GMT

Iranian employees of the British Embassy in Tehran face the prospect of a show trial after the regime said that they had admitted conspiring against the Islamic Republic.

Censored 1966 film Hands Up reveals subversive humour in East Germany

Sat, 04 Jul 2009 00:00:35 GMT

Even at the tortoise-like pace of German humour, this particular punchline has been a long time in the making: 43 years after it was blocked by communist censors, one of the funniest films shot in East Germany has finally seen the light of day.

Sarah Palin hints at White House bid by quitting as governor of Alaska

Sat, 04 Jul 2009 00:00:25 GMT

Sarah Palin set off a storm of speculation about an imminent White House bid when she said yesterday that she was stepping down as governor of Alaska.

Jackson's final act: how $50m loss became a moneyspinner$

Sat, 04 Jul 2009 00:00:07 GMT

When Michael Jackson died last week Randy Phillips, the promoter who committed $50 million ($?31 million) to the King of Pop?s comeback, seemed to be heading for financial disaster.

Los Angeles in mourning for Michael Jackson

Sat, 04 Jul 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Los Angeles is a city in mourning. And by that we mean Los Angeles is a city with dollar-signs spinning in its neon eyeballs, thanking its lucky stars on the Hollywood Walk of Fame for the Celebrity Death of the Century. What with the housing market and the Dow Jones and the unemployment figures, it couldn?t have come at a better time.

America's quick response to roadside bombs outstrips British action

Sat, 04 Jul 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Faced with a rising death toll from roadside bombs, the United States has sent almost 12,000 new combat vehicles to its frontline troops in just under two years. Britain has managed to deliver only 235, which is fewer than promised.

Silvio Berlusconi's absent wife causes a headache for G8 summit

Sat, 04 Jul 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Silvio Berlusconi?s domestic troubles have caused a serious headache for planners of next week?s G8 summit.

L?Aquila earthquake victims despair of returning to their shattered homes

Sat, 04 Jul 2009 00:00:00 GMT

If Silvio Berlusconi takes the G8 leaders to meet those made homeless by April?s earthquake during next week?s summit at L?Aquila, he had better avoid a lady called Gaetana.

Hardline sermons in Iran stiffen EU resolve over embassy staff

Sat, 04 Jul 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Call it pulpit diplomacy. While Western politicians agonise over how to rebuke Iran without undermining talks on its nuclear aspirations, hardline mullahs use their Friday sermons to bullhorn their defiance to the world.

House climate bill wouldn?t cut U.S. oil dependence much - Detroit Free Press

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 20:58:00 GMT

WASHINGTON ? Despite its title as the ?American Clean Energy and Security Act,? the energy and climate bill that the House of Representatives passed recently takes only a modest step toward reducing U.S. dependence on foreign oil. Two studies ...

Colorado Roadless Rule offers right path forward - Grand Junction Daily Sentinel

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 20:51:00 GMT

Deciding how best to manage roadless areas in our national forests has itself become a road filled with legal potholes, political obstacles and procedural roadblocks. But one effort has offered a path forward ? the work that has been ongoing since ...

Clive Palmer has resources to build a mining house - The Australian

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 15:29:00 GMT

IF you want an insight into the scale of Clive Palmer's ambition, there are clues in a shelf company he set up in March -- Resourcehouse. There's nothing in it at the moment, but if his plans come to fruition, it could soon house a multi-billion ...

Platts Broker-Based Indexes for Coal and Emissions for July 2

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 02:43:38 GMT

Washington (Platts) -- 2Jul2009 -- Platts weekly broker emissions indexes, along with its monthly broker emissions indexes and the daily OTC coal broker indexes are posted here so all market participants can evaluate our results. Our "Methodology...

Czech Coal lodges complaint against International Power sell-off

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 02:43:38 GMT

Prague (Platts) -- 2Jul2009 -- Czech Coal has announced that it will lodge a protest with competition authorities against the decision by International Power to sell its Czech assets to local power group J&T. Czech Coal, which...

Olduvai Theory: Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standard of Living - Richard Duncan

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 14:22:00 GMT

This is a guest posting of Richard Duncan's latest "Olduvai" update, which is also featured in the Summer 2009 issue of The Social Contract Quarterly www.thesocialcontract.com. The essay explores energy use and population and as with previous updates arrives at some rather grim conclusions. I'd add that the paper Richard Duncan wrote with Walter Youngquist in 1999 (when oil prices were in $10-$15 range and stock markets were at all time highs) predicting a 2007 world oil peak was not only prescient and ahead of its time using oil forecasting heuristics, but was part of the core readings from 2003 that caused me to leave the Wall St path to study resource depletion full time.

(I encourage those who have not done so to read it: Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production).

Figure 5. Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standards of Living

Olduvai Theory: Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standard of Living

By Richard Duncan

?Standard of Living? is often (not always) measured by money spent per head. Economists acknowledge that this is a poor measure of welfare ? especially during these times of economic turmoil when fiat money becomes unable to purchase basic necessities (e.g., Zimbabwe, recent food riots).

Since the consumption of energy is the prerequisite for all economic activity, ?energy consumption? instead of ?money consumption,? is a more accurate long term metric for measuring welfare.

Abstract

This study is based on: (1) historic population and energy data from 1965 to 2008 and (2) backup studies by several scientists. The Olduvai Theory is explained by disaggregating the World into the U.S., the OECD nations, and the non-OECD nations standards of living (SL). The U.S. SL peaked in 1973 (Figure 1). The World SL rapidly increased from 2000 to 2007 (Figure 2). This increase was caused by just a few non-OECD nations (Figure 3). The OECD SL peaked in 2005 (Figure 4). The Olduvai Theory shows each SL curve trending toward the same average SL value that the World had in 1930 (Figure 5).

Introduction

The Olduvai Theory (OT) is defined by the rise and fall of the World standard of living (SL). The main population data are from OECD (2008) and the main energy data are from BP (2008). The OT is quantified by dividing World population (P) into World energy consumption (E): SL = E/P. ¹

Suddenly however, in June 2008 I was pressed to explain the rapid rise in the World SL from 2000 to 2007. The cause turned out to be the rapid rise of the SL in just a few of the 165 non-OECD (?underdeveloped?) nations: namely China, India and Brazil. In contrast the SL of the 30 OECD (?developed?) nations peaked in 2005 and has since declined.

Population and energy data from 1965 to 2007, OECD data for 2008 and early 2009, and OECD projections to 2010 are the basis for a scenario toward re-equalizing the World SL from 2008 to 2030.

Backup studies are referenced, quoted and discussed:

M. King Hubbert presented an Olduvai-like hypothesis to the AAAS Centennial Conference in 1948 and published it in Science in 1949.
Jay W. Forrester in 1971/1973 used feedback modeling to show the likelihood of overshoot and collapse of the World ?STEP? system.
Walter Youngquist (advance copy ms. GeoDestinies, 2009) describes the grave problems resulting from U.S. and World population growth coupled to the depletion of Earth resources.

Three Geo/STEP Scientists

This section highlights how a Geophysicist, a Systems Scientist and a Petroleum Geologist viewed/view the past and project the future of Industrial Civilization.

M. King Hubbert (1903-1989)

Geophysicist and Professor Emeritus, Columbia University ? gave an invited presentation to the Centennial Conference of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in 1948 titled ?Energy from Fossil Fuels.? In it he sketched and discussed an Olduvai-like scenario. His presentation was published in Science, 1949.

Human Affairs in Time Perspective

The present state of human affairs can best be appreciated in the light of a time perspective, minus and plus, of some tens of thousands of years from the present, as depicted in Fig. 8 [frame #1]. On such a time scale the phenomena we have discussed are represented by abrupt, nearly vertical rises from zero or near zero to maximum values. The consumption of energy from fossil fuels is thus seen to be but a ?pip,? rising sharply from zero to a maximum, and almost as sharply declining, and thus representing but a moment in the total human history.

Likewise the consumption of energy per capita [Fig. 8, frame #3}, after having risen very gradually from 2,000 to possibly 10,000 kilogram calories per day, is seen to increase suddenly to a maximum value of several times the highest previous value. Again it is physically possible to maintain a high value, as indicated by Curve I, on a stable basis for an indefinite period of time from current energy sources, particularly direct and indirect solar radiation. It is also possible, however, that through cultural degeneration this curve may decline, as in Curve II, to the subsistence level of our agrarian ancestors.²

Viewed on such a time scale [Fig. 8, frame #4], the curve of human population would be flat and only slightly above zero for all preceding human history, and then it too would be seen to rise abruptly and almost vertically to a maximum value of several billion. Thereafter, depending largely upon what energy supplies are available, it might stabilize at a maximum value, as in Curve I, or more probably to a lower and more nearly optimum value, as in Curve II. However, should cultural degeneration occur so that the available energy resources should not be utilized, the human population would undoubtedly be reduced to a number appropriate to an agrarian existence, as in Curve III.

These sharp breaks in all the foregoing curves can be ascribed quite definitely, directly or indirectly, to the tapping of the large supplies of energy stored up in the fossil fuels. The release of this energy is a unidirectional and irreversible process. It can only happen once, and the historical events associated with this release are necessarily without precedent, and are intrinsically incapable of repetition.

It is clear, therefore, that our present position on the nearly vertical front slopes of these curves is a precarious one, and that the events which we are witnessing and experiencing, far from being ?normal,? are among the most abnormal and anomalous in the history of the World. Yet we cannot turn back; neither can we consolidate our gains and remain where we are. In fact, we have no choice but to proceed into a future, which we may be assured will differ markedly from anything we have experienced thus far.

M. King Hubbert, Science, 1949, p. 103-109

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Jay W. Forrester

Electrical Engineer, Computer Scientist and Professor Emeritus, Sloan School of Management, MIT ? has a remarkable record of innovations and applications in both hardware and software. This essay focuses on his groundbreaking book, World Dynamics (1971/1973) wherein he uses feedback control theory to model the World STEP system.

The World Situation

Many global attitudes and programs seem to be based on accepting future growth in population as preordained and as the basis for action. But, if we make provision for rising population, population responds by rising. What is to stop the exponential growth? This book describes the circular processes of our social systems in which there is no uni-directional cause and effect. Instead, a ring of actions and consequences close back on themselves. One can say, incompletely, that population will grow and that cities, space, and food must be provided. But one can likewise say, also incompletely, that the provision of cities, space, and food will cause population to grow. Population generates the pressures to support growth of population. But supporting the growth leads to more population. Growth will stop only in the face of enough pressure to suppress the internal dynamic forces of expansion.

Many programs?for example the development of more productive grains and agricultural methods?are spoken of as ?buying time? until population control becomes effective. But the process of buying time reduces the pressures that force population control.

Any proposed program for the future must deal with both the quality of life and the factors affecting population. ?Raising the quality of life,? means releasing stress, reducing crowding, reducing pollution, alleviating hunger, and treating ill health. But these pressures are exactly the sources of concern and actions that will control total population to keep it within the bounds of the fixed world within we live. If the pressures are relaxed, so is the concern about how we impinge on the environment. Population will then rise further until the pressures reappear with an intensity that can no longer be relieved. Trying to raise quality of life without intentionally creating compensating pressure to prevent a rise in population density will be self-defeating. Efforts to improve quality of life will fail until effective means have been implemented for limiting both population and industrialization.

Without effective legal and psychological control, population grows until stresses rise far enough, which is to say that the quality of life falls far enough, to stop further increase. Everything we do to reduce those pressures cause the population to rise farther and faster and hastens the day when expediencies will no longer suffice. People are in the position of a wild animal running from its pursuers. We still have some space, natural resources, and agricultural land left. We can avoid the question of rising population as long as we can flee into this bountiful reservoir that nature provided. But the reservoir is limited. Exponential growth cannot continue. The wild animal flees until he is cornered, until he has no more space. Then he turns to fight, but he no longer has room to maneuver. He is less able to forestall disaster than if he had fought in the open while there was still room to yield and to dodge. The world is running away from its long-term threats by trying to relieve social pressures as they arise. But, if we persist in treating only the symptoms and not the causes, the result will be to increase the magnitude of the ultimate threat and reduce our capability to respond when we no longer have more space and resources to invade.

What does this mean? Instead of automatically attempting to cope with population growth, national and international efforts to relieve the pressures of excess growth must be reexamined. Many such humanitarian impulses seem to be making matters worse in the long run. Rising pressures are necessary to hasten the day when population is stabilized. Pressures can be increased by reducing food production, reducing health services, and reducing industrialization. Such reductions seem to have only slight effect on quality of life in the long run. The principal effect will be in squeezing down and stopping the runaway growth. ?

The long-term future of the earth must be faced soon as a guide for present action. Goals of nations and societies must be altered to become compatible with that future, otherwise man remains out of balance with his environment. Man can do vast damage first, but eventually he will yield to the mounting forces of the environment. Can the traditions of civilization be altered to become compatible with global equilibrium?

Jay W. Forrester, World Dynamics, 1973, p. 123-125

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Walter Youngquist

Geologist, draws from his experience in living and working abroad, and travels in some 70 countries to observe the vital relationship of population to available Earth resources. He is particularly concerned about continuing population growth against declining both nonrenewable and renewable resource bases?fertile soil and fresh water being examples of the latter.

Selections from the Introduction, ms. advance copy

We are relative latecomers on the scene, and the Earth existed for several billion years very well without us. But with our arrival and our development of culture to the technological age in which we now live, in a very brief time we have had an impact on the Earth beyond what any other organism has ever had. We therefore live in a unique, and what is likely to be a very brief time in human history. Some of us have been very fortunate to live in these times near or at the top of the pyramid of technological and medical advances. But we are at the same time living at a great turning point in Earth and human history.

It is apparent that current political, economic, and social efforts are to keep things as they are?not to change. People in developed countries do not like changes in their lifestyles ? if they believe they are good now. But changes come and are unavoidable. ?

As much as the future changed during less than in my lifetime, the future of most of those reading this book will surely be equally or more changed from what is the present. Successfully adjusting to a different future from what has been enjoyed by at least some the past few hundred years is the challenge lying now directly ahead. ?

In earlier centuries, with many fewer people, these Earth resources were exploited only very slowly and in minor amounts. But within the past few hundred years, with the arrival of the Industrial Revolution ? the rate and volume of resource exploitation has greatly increased, ? It was the use of these resources that has been the base for the rise of our present civilization, allowing some segments of society to achieve, ? a standard of living never before imagined.

Accompanying this rise in standard of living has been a huge increase in population, from an estimated 610 million in 1700 to the current approximately 6.7 billion. This has been a truly astounding event made possible chiefly by three factors: great medical advances including sanitation, the widespread use of high energy density fossil fuels, and the use of these fossil fuels to greatly enhance agricultural production ?

[It] is the huge rise in population and related increased Earth resource consumption ? that is probably the salient fact of these truly remarkable recent few centuries. ?

But these materials ? can be extracted and used only once. ? Can we continue to maintain the present high standard of living for some of us, by using truly renewable Earth resources ? instead of an inheritance from the past? ?

Much of the discussion in the following chapters is related to stress on Earth mineral and energy resources, and stress on the environment from population growth. Equally and perhaps more important ? are social stresses resulting in part from depletion of resources, such as water supplies and fertile soils ? and resulting food shortages causing riots. Also population is growing ? faster than are jobs. ? Until recently, the outlet for stress from a growing population was migration ? but this outlet no longer exists. ?

Even the United States, the United Kingdom, and European countries may show stress in several ways including generally rising unemployment, and antagonism toward immigrant labor ?

One fact is abundantly clear: we have already exceeded the permanent carrying capacity of the Earth, and the number one problem is to reduce population in an orderly fashion to fit into the new renewable resources paradigm. ?

[Nearly] all governmental leaders worldwide are committed to keeping and expanding the present agendas of resource consumption ? with the rallying cry of ?sustainable economic growth.? The underlying basic problem of population growth is rarely addressed?absent from most political agendas as being ?politically incorrect.? ?

[Growth] based upon continuing to exploit the finite resources of the Earth is not possible. Yet this is the current basis of the world?s developing and developed economies. ? We need to be as self-sufficient, dependent on resources from local economies ? for this has to be a part of any sustainable future. ?

History is informative and gives us a perspective on how we came to where we are today. But it is the future in which you will live and the future is ?not what it used to be.? But it is now arriving ? bringing with it more than 190,000 people each day to live on depleting resources. ?

It is the purpose of this volume to provide a perspective on the past, but more importantly provide a possible and hopefully a fairly realistic view of what the future may hold. ? [Namely] that on this finite Earth high consuming societies are eventually going to be relegated to being an artifact of history. ?

Our modern, developed societies tend to be removed, by their present degree of affluence, from the environment as the basis for our existence. Food comes from the supermarket, clean water comes from the faucet. But the closer people live to the margin of existence, the more they realize the vital importance of fertile soil, and safe drinking water, ?

How we try to navigate the choppy waters to the future, will determine to a large extent when and in what condition we will arrive to the new land of sustainable renewable Earth resources. ? The continued almost inevitable growth of population ? against the depletion of Earth resources combine to form the main challenge before us. ?

Those who will be living at the end of this century will see much of this land of the future come into view, but even there and then as now, Earth resources will continue to be the base for human existence and will inevitably exert final control over the destinies of nations and individuals. We are made of Earth materials, and its biological products, and on these we survive. To continue to negatively impact our environment is a form of suicide. ?Mother Earth? is not an abstract concept but very much a reality, for from Earth we came, on it we depend for our existence. ?

Walter Youngquist, ms. advance copy GeoDestinies, 2009

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The American Example

Obvious Responses Will Not Suffice

The dynamic characteristics of complex social systems frequently mislead people. ? [Urban policies for example] are being followed on the presumption that they will alleviate the difficulties. ? In fact, a downward spiral develops in which the presumed solution makes the difficulty worse and thereby causes redoubling of the presumed solution so that matters become still worse.

The same downward spiral frequently develops in national government and at the level of world affairs. Judgment and debate lead to programs that appear to be sound. Commitment increases to the apparent solutions. If the presumed solutions actually make matters worse, the process by which this happens is not evident. So, when the troubles increase, the efforts are intensified that are actually worsening the problems.

Jay W. Forrester, 1973, p. 93-94

Figure 1 shows the U.S. standard of living (SL) during 37 years.

Evidence in Figure 1 shows that the U.S. SL grew dramatically from 1965 to its all-time peak in 1973. Then, after an erratic 21 years, it went into an accelerated decline from 2000 to 2007. Moreover, recent data show that the decline accelerated in 2008 and into 2009. Details follow.

Growth?Peak?Decline: From 1965 to 1973 the U.S. SL surged reaching its all time peak in 1973. This was followed by a dip-and-rebound from 1973 to 1979. Then from 1979 to 1983 came a precipitous plunge wherein the U.S. SL fell by 14.5% (8.92 boe/c) in 4 years. A rough recovery came from 1983 to a high in 2000. Then from 2000 to 2007 the U.S. SL declined by 4.1% (2.46 boe/c) in 7 years.

Historical correlations: The U.S. SL grew swiftly during low energy prices from 1965 to 1973. Then in 1973-74 ? correlated with an Arab-Israeli war ? several OPEC nations banded together and refused to export oil to the U.S. Next in 1979 came the fall of the Shaw of Iran ? reputedly a ?puppet? of the U.S. ? accompanied by a steep rise in the price of oil and a plunge in the U.S. SL from 1979 to 1983. This was followed by an erratic struggle wherein the U.S. SL reached a brief high in 2000. Then, beginning with the Dot.com bust, came the ominous decline from 2000 to 2007.

U.S. population vs. energy: The U.S. population grew from 211,909,000 in 1973 to 301,104,000 in 2007 ? an increase of 42.1% or 89,231,000 people in 34 years. At the same time U.S. energy consumption lagged at 31.6%. The net result was that the U.S. SL fell by 7.4% from 1973 to 2007. ³

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The United States annually takes in more immigrants than do all other nations combined. Somalians now live in Minnesota. Sudanese live in Kentucky. Medicaid is received by 14.8 percent of households headed by Americans, and 24.2 percent by households headed by immigrants. Many compassionate Americans feel that it is our duty to take in more and more immigrants. However, at the current rate of approximately 2.5 million a year, this accounts for only 3 percent of the 80 million people added to world population annually. The United States cannot continue to act as a safety valve for even a small portion of world population growth. Very near the U. S., Haiti has 9 million people living in an area smaller than Malheur County Oregon. Haiti is on international food welfare. We ship food to Haiti, which simply results in more Haitians to whom to ship food next year. More than 27 countries now exhibit this same circumstance. Population is a homegrown problem, and it must be recognized and solved at home, without exporting it. ?There is nothing more dangerous than a shallow-thinking compassionate person.? ? Garrett Hardin.

Youngquist, ms. advance copy GeoDestinies, 2009, Ch. 20

The Olduvai Theory: Background

The fifth revolution will come when we have spent the stores of coal and oil that have been accumulating in the earth during hundreds of millions of years ? it is obvious that there will be a very great difference in ways of life ? a man has to alter his way of life considerably, when, after living for years on his capital, he suddenly finds he has to earn any money he wants to spend ? This change may justly be called a revolution, but it differs from all the preceding ones in that there is no likelihood of its leading to increases of population, but even perhaps to the reverse.

Charles Galton Darwin, 1953, p. 52

The similarities and differences in the shape of the Olduvai/World curve in Figure 2 are compared to the shape of the U.S. curve (Figure 1, previous) as an aid to understanding both.

Figure 2. Olduvai/World Average Standard of Living

Note well Figure 2 vis-?-vis Figure 1: (1) Both the World SL and the U.S. SL grew strongly from 1965 to 1973: 27.8% for the World SL and 28.2% for the U.S. SL. (2) Compare the ups and downs in each curve from 1979 to 2000 wherein there was a net decline in each curve: 1.9% decline in Figure 2 and 2.8% decline in Figure 1. (3) In contrast ? the two curves differ markedly from 2000 to 2007: the World SL increased by a strong 9.7% while the U.S. SL decreased by 4.1%.

The strong correlation between the Olduvai/World SL and the U.S. SL from 1965 to 2000 is evidence that the same events must have influenced both curves during these 35 years. So we ask, ?What likely caused the noted difference between the two curves from 2000 to 2007?? This question is discussed and answered in the next two sections. ⁴

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There is coming this century, in places, already here, an inevitable collision between resources available on a finite Earth and rising population demands from both growth and hopes for a more affluent existence.

Youngquist, ms. advance copy GeoDestinies, 2009, Ch. 33

In 1972 the presidential appointed Rockefeller Commission was to examine the future well being of the United States. At that time the U. S. population was approximately 207 million, and the Commission reported they could see no advantage in having more people. But in 2009 the U. S. had 307 million and still growing.

Albert Bartlett has stated: ?Can you think of any problem, on any scale from microscopic to global, whose long-term solution is in any demonstrable way, aided, assisted, or advanced by having larger populations at the local level, the state level, the national level, or globally??

Looking inevitably toward a renewable resource-based future, present population has already exceeded the carrying capacity of the Earth, but by 2050 another 2.5 billion are projected to be here. The worldwide number one problem is population, for, as is the motto of one environmental group ?Whatever your cause is, it is lost without population control.?

Youngquist, ms. advance copy GeoDestinies, 2009, Ch. 20

OECD SL and Non-OECD SL

OECD Composite Leading Indicators reach new low

The OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for January 2009 continue to point to a weakening outlook for all the major seven economies, with the OECD total falling again to a new low and little clear indication of stabilizing soon. The outlook has also continued to deteriorate in the major non-OECD member economies ?

The CLI for the OECD area in January ? was 9.1 points lower than in January 2008. The CLI for the United States in January ? was 10.8 points lower than a year ago. ?

The CLI for China in January 2009 ? was 14.8 points lower than a year ago. The CLI for India in January ? was 9.6 points lower than in January 2008. The CLI for Russia ? was 19.4 points lower than a year ago. In January 2009 the CLI for Brazil ? was 10.1 points lower than a year ago.

OECD (2009b)

By most accounts there are 195 nations (countries) in the World. The OECD comprises the 30 ?developed? nations and the non-OECD comprises the 165 ?underdeveloped? nations. For example, the United States, United Kingdom, Germany and Japan are OECD nations. In contrast China, India, Russia, Brazil and Ethiopia are non-OECD nations. The Olduvai/World curve comprises both the OECD nations and the non-OECD nations.

Figure 3 depicts the Olduvai/World data disaggregated into one curve for the OECD nations a second curve for the non-OECD nations.

Figure 3. OECD SL and non-OECD SL Compared

The OECD document (2009b, above) and Figure 3, taken together; reveal several significant facts to explain the recent upshot of the Olduvai/World curve (Figure 2, previous): (1) The OECD SL curve from 2000 to 2007 decreased by 0.8% (0.27 boe/c). (2) The non-OECD SL curve increased by 28.1% (1.62 boe/c). Thus the rapid rise in the Olduvai/World curve from 2000 to 2007 was entirely caused by growth in the non-OECD SL and none of it caused by the OECD SL. (3) The OECD SL reached an all-time maximum in 2005. (4) Then from 2005 to 2007 it decreased by 0.8% (0.30 boe/c). (5) Further, the entire OECD SL fell by 9.1 CLI points during 2008.

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?Growth? ? A reaffirmed global objective

[In] response to the global economic meltdown, the G-20 was formed consisting of the leaders of the 20 biggest, richest, and emerging economies. A summary statement of their objectives was released and printed in full in ? November 16, 2008. One of the clearly stated objectives was to ?restore global growth,? to enhance ?economic growth,? and foster ?sustainable growth.? In total, the term ?growth? in various contexts appears nine times.

An additional objective is ?to stimulate domestic demand ?? In all uses of the term ?growth? the G-20 group meant it ultimately in terms of material things. It is clear the fact that ?sustainable growth? is an oxymoron ? Continued growth in use of both nonrenewable and renewable natural resources is the problem, not the solution. ??

We are already exploiting the Earth?s vital resources at an unsustainable rate. Demand is exceeding resource supplies to the extent that even now more than half the world is in poverty. Standard of living ? is most easily measured by per capita consumption of energy. In the United States this peak was in 1973, and now going down quite rapidly. Whatever gains may have been accomplished by the laudable efforts of efficiency and conservation ? have been more than cancelled by increase in population, suggested also by the fact that the U. S. is the only industrialized nation with a significant growth in population, now about three million per year. ? Nationally, 80% is due to immigration, in California, nearly 100%, where by 2030 20 million more people are expected to arrive adding to the 38 million there now.

Youngquist, advance ms. copy GeoDestinies, 2009, Ch. 33

Focus on OECD Standard of Living

GDP to plummet 4.3 percent across OECD countries in 2009 as unemployment climbs sharply

Economic activity is expected to plummet by an average 4.3 percent in the OECD area in 2009 while by the end of 2010 unemployment rates in many countries will reach double figures ? Amid the deepest and most widespread recession for more than 50 years, international trade is forecast to fall by more than 13 percent in 2009 and world economic activity to shrink by 2.7 percent. ? In the United States, activity will fall sharply in the near term, but the country could begin to pull out of the recession in early 2010, assuming the effectiveness of the strong stimulus packages and more stable financial and housing markets. ? In the large emerging economies activity is slowing as access to international credit dries up, commodity prices fall and export demand weakens. ? The Interim Outlook adds that the risks of an even gloomier scenario outweigh the possibility of a quicker recovery. ?

OECD (2009a)

Figure 4. The OECD SL: Peak Revealed

Figure 4 focuses on OECD data from 1992 to 2007. Four key facts emerge: (1) The OECD SL grew by a remarkable 8.6% (2.77 boe/c) from 1992 to its all time maximum in 2005. (2) Then it declined by 0.8% (0.30 boe/c) from 2005 to 2007. (3) Economic activity in the OECD area is expected to plummet by an average 4.3 percent in 2009. (4) The U.S. is the largest economy in the OECD, passed its peak SL in 1973 and its SL has since declined. These facts mean that the OECD maximum in 2005 will, I assume, be the all-time OECD SL peak.

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Increasingly, from across the globe, nightly television brings to our living rooms photos of malnourished people, particularly touching are the starving children. Advanced countries can provide the means and the knowledge for a given country to adjust its population to its sustainable food resource base, but implementation of that action becomes an individual responsibility, and collectively a national responsibility. Thus far this most fundamental of all humanity?s problems is consistently ignored by all?or nearly all?public officials everywhere. It has never, to my knowledge, become part of any political platform or a politician?s agenda seeking office or one seeking to remain in office. All of the above also relates to the United States.

The number one, most important factor in all of this is current size of population and above all, continued population growth. But this overriding consideration is never recognized. The word ?population? does not appear anywhere in the G-20 statement. If this document represents the forward ?thinking? of the world leaders of the biggest and richest economies, we are in very deep trouble.?

Youngquist, ms. advance copy GeoDestinies, 2009, Ch. 20

Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standard of Living

The real issues, I believe, rest on the impossibility of a long-term favorable future for the human species if different parts of the Earth remain in grossly different stages of development. On a long-term basis it simply is not possible to contemplate a life of prosperity and luxury in a few favorable cases on the Earth existing permanently alongside poverty and starvation everywhere else. Sooner or later, standards of living work themselves to a pretty constant level, like water finding its own level.

Sir Fred Hoyle, 1964, p. 54-55

Figure 5 depicts four curves, one for each SL category we?ve discussed.

Figure 5. Toward Re-Equalizing the World SL

The vertical scale of Figure 5 goes from 0.0 boe/c to 64.0 boe/c to accommodate all of the SL curves previously shown. Historic data appear from 1990 to 2007 and ? along with other data and many references ? provide the basis for the Olduvai scenario shown from 2008 to 2030. ⁵

In Figure 5 the U.S. curve (#4) in 2007 represents 4.5% (0.301 billion) of World population and had a SL of 57.5 boe/c. In contrast, the non-OECD curve (#1) in 2007 represents 82.3% of World population and had a SL of 7.4 boe/c. This difference cannot last for long. The following scenario projects how ?Mother Nature? will resolve this problem. ⁶

The Olduvai Scenario: The U.S. SL plunges (curve 4); the OECD SL dives (curve 2); the non-OECD SL levels off and then sinks (curve 1); the Olduvai SL (curve #2) peaks in 2010 ⁷ and then declines to a scant 3.53 boe/c in 2030. That SL for the World in 2030 will equal the same SL the World had in 1930 ? thus giving Industrial Civilization a ?pip? of 100 years. In other words: The falling World SL will eventually limit both World population growth and industrialization.

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Population now has grown beyond the former abundance of relatively inexpensive basic resources. As costs of the necessities of life rise, strains are appearing across the world. Even in what has been called "the richest nation" the United States the fabric of everyday life is coming under stress. With the addition each year of three million people, the stress can only increase. One can begin to feel a growing uneasiness about the future, both here and abroad. There is good cause for unease, with world population increasing at the rate of more than 80 million a year continuing the assault on the life-sustaining environment.

Youngquist, ms. advance copy GeoDestinies, 2009, Ch. 20

The irreconcilable current trends of a growing population and declining supporting resources seem not yet to be recognized at any levels of political leadership. However, these two facts will collide head-on this century. At best, this will result in a halt to population growth. At worst it could be chaos. The ability of the Industrial Revolution and related technologies to find and exploit the Earth?s resources at an unsustainable rate for a fortunate relatively few societies, by its very success carries within it the seeds of its own destruction. We inevitably face a future of less. However, bringing this message to the developed and developing world?s citizens is not being done. Discussion of this topic and population growth unfortunately remains politically incorrect. Economists and political leaders nearly everywhere continue to endorse the illusion that more people consuming more resources (?buy more???increase demand?) is the road to permanent prosperity, whereas now the exact opposite is true.

Youngquist, ms. advance copy GeoDestinies, 2009, Ch. 20

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

The average U.S. standard of living (SL, Fig. 1) peaked in 1973; from 1973 to 2007 it decreased by 7.4%; the U.S. composite leading indicator (CLI) in January 2009 was 10.8 points lower than in January 2008. Conclusion 1: The U.S. SL will continue falling long into the future.

The Olduvai/World SL (Fig. 2) reached a temporary high in 1979; from 1979 to 2000 it decreased by 1.9%; however from 2000 to 2007 it increased by 9.7%; the increase was entirely caused by increases in a few non-OECD nations. Conclusion 2: The World SL itself will soon begin to decline.

The OECD SL (Figs. 3 & 4) reached its peak in 2005; from 2005 to 2007 it decreased by 0.8%; its ?CLI was 9.1 points lower in January 2009 than in January 2008; economic activity is expected to plummet by an average 4.3 percent in the OECD area in 2009 and by the end of 2010 unemployment rates in many OECD countries will reach double figures.? Conclusion 3: The OECD SL will continue to fall.

The non-OECD SL (Fig. 3) increased by 28.0% from 2000 to 2007 and this caused the rapid rise in the Olduvai/World SL during those years (Fig. 2). However, ?In the large emerging economies activity is slowing as access to international credit dries up, commodity prices fall and export demand weakens.? Further: The CLIs for China, India and Brazil all fell sharply in 2008. Conclusion 4: The non-OECD SL has already begun to fall.

The Olduvai Scenario (Fig. 5): The U.S. SL falls by 90% from 2008 to 2030. The OECD SL falls by 86%. The non-OECD falls by 60%. The OECD SL melds with the non-OECD SL in 2030 putting the World SL at 3.53 boe/c in 2030. Conclusion 5: The World SL reaches the same value in 2030 that it had in 1930, giving Industrial Civilization a duration of 100 years.

Projections regarding the United States: (1) We will refuse to solve our own problems so Mother Nature will ?solve? them for us. (2) Sooner or later industrial decline will cause population decline and, tit-for-tat feedback, population decline will cause industrial decline. (3) The U.S. population distribution in 2100 will look more like the rural geography of 1900 than like the urban geography of today. (4) Trying to stimulate ? or even maintain ? the present level of domestic demand of nonrenewable and renewable Earth resources will fail. (5) Multiculturalism will cause chaos during the transition to localism.

Acknowledgments

Dr. Walter Youngquist and Dr. Colin J. Campbell have shared their keen insights over many years. John Gibbons, publisher of http://www.thinkorswim.ie/ motivated this study just as the world economy imploded. Dr. Euan Mearns has demonstrated an astute and useful way to analyze oil forecasts.

Definitions

1. G means billion. 2. boe refers to the average energy content of a barrel of oil. 3. E means energy consumption in G boe. 4. P means population in G. 5. Standard of Living (SL) is the ratio of E and P: SL = E/P. 6. Geo/STEP refers to complex Geo/social-technical-economic-political systems. 7. Scenario means, ?An outline for any proposed or planned series of events, real or imagined.?

End Notes

1. This is Ackerman?s Law, discussed in Duncan, 2005-2006, p. 2-3.

2. M. King Hubbert in 1949 projected that the duration of Industrial Civilization would be more than 1,000 years, some ten times that of the Olduvai Theory.

3. ?Re-equalization of living standards: It will be a long slow process but I think the trend will be there this century. You might note also that immigration tends to do the same thing ? people migrate out of resource scarce poor countries to countries with more resources ? the migrants use more resources and this cuts down total available for all. The USA is a good example. People use energy ? more people use more energy, and if there is not enough to go around at low cost, everybody sees a cut in living standards. So migration is a factor in equalization of living standards.? (Walter Youngquist, letter, 8/28/08)

4. The noted Olduvai cartoon (Duncan 1996) can be viewed at here

5. ?The expanding economy of the First Half of the Age of Oil led to increasing globalization based on growing world trade and financial hegemony by powerful countries. But the Second Half will likely see reversion to localism as different communities come to terms with the changed circumstances and find new sustainable patterns of life to match the resources available to them.? (Colin J. Campbell, 2009, p. 4)

6. ?Forcible imposition of population control would be seen by most people as a sufficiently unfavorable change in the social environment that they might prefer that the forces take the tangible forms of lowered material standard of living and reduced food supply.? (Jay W. Forrester, 1973, p. 122)

7. Latest data at this writing suggest that the OT Peak actually occurred in 2008, but it was then too late to change Figure 5 and the associated text.

SOURCES

Ackerman, F. L. (1932). The technologist looks at social phenomena. In Introduction to Technocracy by Howard Scott (1933). John Day Co., NY.

BP (2008). British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy www.bp.com.

Campbell, C. J. (2009). ASPO Newsletter No. 100. April: www.aspo-ireland.org/contentFiles/newsletterPDFs/newsletter100_200904.pdf.

Darwin, C. G. (1953). The Next Million Years. Doubleday. Garden City, NY.

Duncan, R. C. (2005-2006). The Olduvai Theory: Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization. Winter. www.thesocialcontract.com.

Duncan, R. C. (1996). The Olduvai cartoon is shown at: www.hubbertpeak.com/duncan/olduvai.htm.

Forrester, J. W. (1971/1973). World Dynamics. Wright-Allen Press. Cambridge, MA. http://sysdyn.clexchange.org/people/jay-forrester.html.

Hoyle, F. (1964). Of Men and Galaxies. University of Washington. Seattle.

Hubbert, M. K. (1949). Energy from Fossil Fuels. Science, v. 109, p. 103-109. www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_from_Fossil_Fuels (historical).

OECD (2009a). GDP to plummet 4.3 percent across OECD countries in 2009 as unemployment climbs sharply. 31 March. www.oecd.org.

OECD (2009b), OECD Composite Leading Indicators reach new low. 6 March. www.oecd.org.

OECD (2008). Factbook: Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics. Total Population Table (.xls). www.oecd.org.

Youngquist, W. (2009). GeoDestinies, 2nd Edition, Forthcoming: National Book Company, Portland, OR.

DrumBeat: July 3, 2009

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 14:18:31 GMT

Eager to Tap Iraq's Vast Oil Reserves, Industry Execs Suggested Invasion

Two years before the invasion of Iraq, oil executives and foreign policy advisers told the Bush administration that the United States would remain "a prisoner of its energy dilemma" as long as Saddam Hussein was in power.
That April 2001 report, "Strategic Policy Challenges for the 21st Century," was prepared by the James A. Baker Institute for Public Policy and the US Council on Foreign Relations at the request of then-Vice President Dick Cheney.
In retrospect, it appears that the report helped focus administration thinking on why it made geopolitical sense to oust Hussein, whose country sat on the world's second largest oil reserves.
"Iraq remains a destabilizing influence to the flow of oil to international markets from the Middle East," the report said.

Crude Oil Falls to $66 in New York, 10% Below This Year?s High

(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures in New York fell below $66 a barrel, a 10 percent decline from this year?s high, marking a market ?correction.?
Crude oil is set for a third weekly drop after U.S. unemployment rose to the highest in almost 26 years, signaling the world?s largest energy user remains mired in recession. Prices may drop again next week on speculation that U.S. fuel inventories will climb as the weak economy curbs demand, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts.
?It has been a double whammy for crude oil,? said Chris Jarvis, president of Caprock Risk Management LLC in Hampton Falls, New Hampshire. ?You?ve got a stronger dollar and weaker- than-expected economic data, so that was a huge catalyst to start selling crude.?

Russia?s call to raise cost of gas falls on deaf ears

Moscow has asked Seoul to readjust the price of the liquid natural gas that Russia began exporting to Korea this year after Russian government officials complained that the price agreed upon in 2004 is too low. But Seoul officials have refused to renegotiate the deal, which was sealed five years ago.
According to officials of Korea?s Knowledge Economy Ministry and Korea Gas Corp., Russia recently made an official request to raise the price of the liquid natural gas from the Sakhalin gas reserve during the latest session of the Korea-Russia Joint Commission on Economic, Scientific and Technological Cooperation. The meeting was held in Seoul on July 1.

Kashagan development costs slashed

The cost of developing Kazakhstan's huge Kashagan oilfield will be cut by at least $1 billion as the global crisis drives down machinery prices, Kazakh Energy Minister Sauat Mynbayev said today.
The oilfield, in the north-east of the Caspian Sea, is due to come onstream in 2012. Kazakhstan's government had earlier estimated its total cost at $136 billion.

Russia Gazprom plans $2 bln Eurobond in two tranches

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's gas export monopoly, Gazprom, plans to issue a Eurobond in two tranches denominated in dollars and euros and worth up to $2 billion in total, banking sources told Reuters on Friday.
The monopoly plans to channel part of the proceeds to its oil arm, Gazprom Neft, to help it finance a buying spree.

Turkey gives green light to EU gas pipeline deal

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS ? Turkey will host the signing of an inter-governmental agreement on the EU-backed Nabucco gas pipeline on 13 July, in a major breakthrough for the long-delayed project aimed at reducing Europe's gas reliance on Russia.

Book Review: Blackout

Coal. Under the surface we seem to have a lot of it. It?s fairly inexpensive but this is changing as demand rises to meet increased energy needs especially in countries like China. So we have a lot, its cheap, let?s use it, what?s the problem? Right? Wrong!
Author Richard Heinberg writes in Blackout: Coal, Climate and the Last Energy Crisis, ?In short: two of the defining trends of the emerging century?the development of the Asian economies and climate change?both center on coal. But coal is finite non-renewable resource. Thus, a discussion of the future of coal must also intersect with a third great trend of the new century: resource depletion.?

Iranian cleric: British Embassy staff to be tried

A top Iranian cleric said Friday that some of the detained Iranian staffers of the British Embassy in Tehran will be put on trial, and he accused Britain of a role in instigating widespread protests that erupted over the country's disputed presidential election.

What's the tipping point for revolution?

Skepparkroken, Sweden ? How can it be that 70,000 protesters in Leipzig in 1989 tore down the Berlin Wall, while up to a million protesters in Tehran in 2009 managed only ? so far ? to trigger repression? Or, to phrase it differently, what's the tipping point for revolution? Just when does civil society trump entrenched political power?

KFC's proposal: First pot pies, now potholes

Everybody needs a little KFC. But maybe not Chicago.
The fast-food chain has sent off a letter to the nation's mayors, offering to patch their potholes for free. The company will leave behind a stenciled brand on the patch informing people the road has been "Re-Freshed by KFC."

Oil's record high, one year later: Crude is less than half its $145 peak of last July 3 - as a global economic slowdown zaps demand

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- One year ago, on July 3, 2008, oil prices settled at a record high -- a once-unthinkable $145.29 a barrel
On Thursday, it settled at $66.73, less than half the record price, following a $2.58 decline.
In between, a global demand surge morphed into a global economic slowdown -- one that would drive the price of oil as low as $33.87 in December -- followed by the partial recovery that has been underway since.
A year ago, oil was driven higher by two factors. One was the emergence of new global economic powers such as China, India and Russia, competing with the United States and the West for the world's oil. The other was a weak dollar, the currency of crude trading.

Oil May Fall on U.S. Fuel Inventories Increase, Survey Shows

(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may fall on speculation that U.S. fuel inventories will climb as the recession curbs demand in the world?s biggest energy-consuming country.
Eighteen of 37 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 49 percent, said futures will decline through July 10. Nine respondents, or 24 percent, said the market will be little changed and 10, or 27 percent, forecast that oil prices will rise. Last week, 55 percent of analysts said prices would drop.

OPEC and IEA Agree Not to Disagree: A Good Omen for the Industry

For a change now, the OPEC viewpoint seems to be gaining ground, getting the due attention it deserves. This was not based on rhetoric or partisan energy politics, it was based on facts, simple and pure facts, one could say now without the fear of being ridiculed.
The world of energy today increasingly appreciates that wide scale speculation in oil markets carries tremendous risks. When Asian energy ministers met in Japan earlier this year, the issue of speculation was underlined, with everyone -- producers as well as the consumers -- emphasizing it could cause havoc to the global energy markets.
Interestingly now even the IEA, the OECD energy watchdog and the EU are also emphasizing that oil markets risk another speculative bubble unless the financial sector is reformed, reined in and transparency is enhanced.

Canadian Superior granted bankruptcy protection

Canadian Superior Energy Inc. said its application seeking court protection from creditors was successful, staying all claims against the oil and gas producer and its assets.
The court order, effective until March 25, allows the company to prepare a plan to payoff creditors, including the proposed sale of a stake of 25% or more in a promising gas discovery in Trinidad and Tobago.

Pumped storage hydro plants enjoy dual boost

Scottish and Southern announces plan for first new UK pumped storage plants in more than 30 years, as US government releases fresh hydro funding.

Interest in bees and chickens soars ahead of last Royal Show

In the past year, the smallholder retailer Countrywide has seen a 40 per cent increase in net sales across all poultry products in the past year.
Simon McEwan, editor of Country Smallholding magazine, said: ?Many suppliers report that business has been very brisk over the past year. From humble beginnings in the 1970s, the grow-your-own revolution is gathering pace.
?Concerns about food security, climate change, food miles and the energy crisis are also considerations. No doubt the credit crunch is having an effect too.?

Organic Farms as Subdivision Amenities

SOUTH BURLINGTON, Vt. ? The bewildered Iowan who converted his farm into a ballpark in ?Field of Dreams? in 1989 might reverse the move today. From Vermont to central California, developers are creating subdivisions around organic farms to attract buyers. If you plant it, these developers believe, they will buy.
Increasingly, subdivisions, usually master-planned developments at which buyers buy home sites or raw land, have been treating farms as an amenity. ?There are currently at least 200 projects that include agriculture as a key community component,? said Ed McMahon, a senior fellow with the Urban Land Institute.

A Farmer in Suburbia, Not So Far Afield

Set among the rolling green hills of Loudoun County, Jim Dunlap's farm hasn't changed much since the 1780s. The original fieldstone farmhouse, designed by William Penn, is still there, albeit larger after two additions. So is the stone smokehouse and a spring house. There are peach trees, raspberry bushes and vegetables. If Isaac James, a former owner and the great-grandfather of outlaw Jesse, were to visit, he would see just one real difference: SnowBear Farm is now the only farm in sight. The property is surrounded by huge suburban mansions with wide, empty lawns.
Of course, these days it's more surprising to find a working farm than McMansions in Loudoun. But Dunlap, a retired CIA operations officer, wanted to farm here. His little piece of suburbia is perfectly situated for a small farmer just starting out: The land is fertile, and the location, just 55 miles from Washington, puts him within striking distance of lucrative urban farmers markets, where prices and demand are high for produce grown without pesticides or chemical fertilizers. "We need to take a lot of this land that's used for pet horses and giant lawns and find ways to grow food on it again," Dunlap said. "My work is an experiment to figure out how we can do it."

Bike shop puts neighborhood teens to work

Humboldt Park-area kids coming into program learned bike repair and became owners of the bikes they worked on. Gregorio Lozada was one of them and is now a bike mechanic employed here.
"My mind is set to put things together, take 'em apart, so I can sit here and take this bike apart and I can put it back together. It's easy for me," said Lozada.

Green Power Takes Root in the Chinese Desert

DUNHUANG, China ? As the United States takes its first steps toward mandating that power companies generate more electricity from renewable sources, China already has a similar requirement and is investing billions to remake itself into a green energy superpower.
Through a combination of carrots and sticks, Beijing is starting to change how this country generates energy. Although coal remains the biggest energy source and is almost certain to stay that way, the rise of renewable energy, especially wind power, is helping to slow China?s steep growth in emissions of global warming gases.
While the House of Representatives approved a requirement last week that American utilities generate more of their power from renewable sources of energy, and the Senate will consider similar proposals over the summer, China imposed such a requirement almost two years ago.

Oil hovers above $66 in Asia after weak jobs data

SINGAPORE ? Oil prices hovered above $66 a barrel Friday in Asia in light holiday trading a day after grim unemployment numbers from the U.S. and Europe sent crude prices tumbling.

Oil brokerage PVM names rogue trader

LONDON (Reuters) - PVM Oil Futures Limited said on Friday that Steve Perkins, a senior broker based at the firm's London office, was responsible for unauthorized trades earlier this week which landed the firm with a loss of nearly $10 million.
The London-based brokerage said Perkins had taken the unauthorized positions in Brent crude futures early on Tuesday morning.
The heavy buying of Brent futures in Asian trade on Tuesday caused global crude prices to spike to their highest level this year, in a move traders and analysts had previously struggled to explain.

OPEC Says ?Satisfied? With Current Crude Oil Price

(Bloomberg) -- OPEC is ?satisfied? with the current oil price, OPEC President Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos said today in Beijing.
The current price is ?good for all of us, the consumers and the producers,? de Vasconcelos said. The world economy has recovered and ?this price is a balanced price for us,? he told reporters at the Global Think Tank Summit.

Saudi Arabia May Cut Heavy-Oil Price as Processing Profits Drop

(Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia may lower the official price of its heavy oil grade sold to Asia from a six-year high as processing profit for fuel used by ships and power plants declined in the previous month, refinery officials said.

Qatar to Roll Back Crude Oil Supply Cut in August, Refiners Say

(Bloomberg) -- Qatar Petroleum will supply full contracted volumes of crude oil to term customers in Asia in August, rolling back a 15 percent cut imposed in July on one of its grades, refinery officials said.
The state-owned company last month pledged full volumes of its Qatar Land grade for July, but cut Qatar Marine shipments by 15%, traders at two refiners who hold one-year contracts said today. They asked to remain unidentified because of confidentiality agreements with the supplier.

Europe urged to stockpile gas

European countries were urged to start stockpiling gas reserves for the winter as another gas crisis involving Russia and Ukraine is looming.
The European Commission said a repeat of January's energy shortfall was likely if Ukraine failed to raise ?4.2m needed to pay for Russian gas supplies required to fill its storage facilities.

Venezuela, China May Sign New Loan-for-Oil Accord, Chavez Says

(Bloomberg) -- Venezuela and China Development Bank Corp. are discussing a third $4 billion infrastructure loan to be paid in oil, President Hugo Chavez said.
?This bank is the one with the most money in the world,? Chavez said late yesterday on state television. ?It has half the money in the world and is allied with Venezuela.?

PetroChina boosts output at Sulige gasfield

BEIJING (Reuters) - Top oil and gas firm PetroChina raised daily output at its largest Sulige gasfield, in northern China's Ordos Basin, to 25.6 million cubic metres, up 67 percent from last July, its parent CNPC said.

The Reasons Behind Big Oil Declining Iraq's Riches

Any notion that the invasion of Iraq was simply an oil grab took another hit on Tuesday when Baghdad opened the bidding on the rights to develop its massive energy reserves. In a day-long auction of eight huge oil fields ? some of the world's biggest ? virtually all the 41 foreign companies invited to bid by the Iraqi government balked at the Baghdad terms. The only contract signed was a 20-year deal for a consortium led by BP and China's National Petroleum Corporation to develop the giant Rumaila field in southern Iraq. "Frankly I did not think it would be such a fiasco and embarrassment for the government," says Rochdi Younsi, Director of Middle East and Africa for the Eurasia Group in Washington. "It shows the level of disconnect between the Ministry of Oil and the oil companies."

Iraq over optimistic on oil, output to fall - IEA

LONDON (Reuters) - Iraqi plans to raise oil output to 6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2017 are likely to be over optimistic, the International Energy Agency said on Monday, saying oil capacity could fall over the next two years.
The IEA said in its Medium-Term Oil Market Report it had taken a very conservative view of Iraqi production capacity for 2008/14 despite tremendous international interest in the country's oil development projects.
It forecast Iraqi oil production capacity would fall to as low as 2.23 million bpd in 2010/11 before gradually rising to 2.7 million bpd by 2014. The country's oil production is now between 2.3 million and 2.4 million bpd, industry sources say.

China?s CNPC, Cnooc Group Said to Seek Stake in Repsol?s YPF

(Bloomberg) -- Repsol YPF SA is in talks with China National Petroleum Corp. and China National Offshore Oil Corp. about a sale of a stake in its Argentinean unit, three people familiar with the discussions said.

Nigeria, Algeria, Niger Sign Accord on Gas Pipeline

(Bloomberg) -- Nigeria, Algeria and Niger signed an agreement on a proposed Trans-Saharan pipeline that will ship natural gas from Nigeria to Europe.
The accord was signed by Nigerian Petroleum Minister Rilwanu Lukman, Niger?s Energy Minister Mohammed Abdullahi and his Algerian counterpart Chakib Khelil in the Nigerian capital, Abuja, today.

EnCana hit by fifth explosion

An explosion that damaged a natural-gas pipeline in northeast British Columbia this week is likely linked to earlier attacks on energy facilities in the area, the RCMP said yesterday.

US envoy returns to post in Venezuela

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) ? A U.S. envoy who was expelled last year by President Hugo Chavez said Thursday he hopes to re-establish dialogue after resuming his post in Venezuela.

Ally's Ouster Gives Venezuela's Ch?vez a Stage, an Opportunity

CARACAS, Venezuela -- An ally was in trouble, toppled in a military coup. And the television cameras were rolling.
The ouster of Honduran President Manuel Zelaya could not have been better scripted for another Latin American leader who has taken center stage: Venezuelan President Hugo Ch?vez. The populist firebrand has been Zelaya's most forceful advocate and could win international accolades if the Honduran eventually succeeds in regaining power.

$49M power line project will support crude oil pipeline

A new $49 million electric transmission line is being planned to support the TransCanada Keystone crude oil pipeline project that will run through central Nebraska.

A month with no driving explores a car-crazy culture

Beginning Tuesday follow along with News reporter Fred Davies as he tosses his car keys and embarks on a month of no driving.
A multi-part feature will examine the state of transportation in Oceanside, as he delves into a car crazy (some might say addicted) culture and discovers what all that driving means for livability in the region.
The state of public transit, how municipalities fare in addressing accessibility, health impacts, potential fixes, their cost and who might pay for it, will all be grist for the mill.

Japan may add noise to quiet hybrid cars for safety

TOKYO (AFP) ? Japan's near-silent hybrid cars have been called dangerous by the vision-impaired and some users, prompting a government review on whether to add a noise-making device, according to an official.

Spain backtracks on nuclear power phase-out

MADRID (AFP) ? Spain's government said Thursday it would allow the country's oldest nuclear reactor to operate beyond its intended 40-year lifespan, reversing a policy of gradually phasing out nuclear power.
Through a combination of carrots and sticks, Beijing is starting to change how this country generates energy. Although coal remains the biggest energy source and is almost certain to stay that way, the rise of renewable energy, especially wind power, is helping to slow China?s steep growth in emissions of global warming gases.

EPA extends comment period on biofuel standard

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Environmental Protection Agency on Thursday said it was extending the comment period on a draft rule that aims to cut greenhouse gases emitted by biofuels.
The proposed changes to the 2007 U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard attempt to make production of corn-based ethanol more efficient and increase output of advanced biofuels.

Another endangered elephant dies in Indonesia: WWF

Five of the eight elephants have died near or inside the concession area. Three were killed for their tusks and four were poisoned after eating palm oil plants doused in toxic chemicals.
"Some people are trying to protect their palm oil crops in the area by pouring insecticides on the plants. Maybe it's not intentional but it has killed a few elephants," Syamsidar said.
Conflicts between wild animals and humans are on the rise on Sumatra, where legal and illegal logging is rapidly reducing the tropical jungle.

EPA allows TVA to dump spilled coal ash in Ala.

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. ? The nation's largest utility can dump millions of tons of coal ash from a Tennessee spill into an Alabama landfill, federal regulators said Thursday, despite criticism that the plan is unfair to one of Alabama's poorest counties.

Exxon, Valero Face New Curbs on Cancer-Causing Gases

(Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama is considering new curbs on U.S. oil refineries whose gas emissions pose a cancer risk to hundreds of thousands of people living near the plants, setting up a potential conflict with companies over the cost of new regulations.
The White House suspended a ruling signed by President George W. Bush four days before he left office that found refiners were adequately controlling benzene and other cancer- causing gases, said Cathy Milbourn, a spokeswoman at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Federal ?organic? label?s integrity under fire: Consumers who pay up to twice as much don?t always get what they expect

WASHINGTON - Three years ago, U.S. Department of Agriculture employees determined that synthetic additives in organic baby formula violated federal standards and should be banned from a product carrying the federal organic label. Today the same additives, purported to boost brainpower and vision, can be found in 90 percent of organic baby formula.
The government's turnaround, from prohibition to permission, came after a USDA program manager was lobbied by the formula makers and overruled her staff. That decision and others by a handful of USDA employees, along with an advisory board's approval of a growing list of non-organic ingredients, have helped numerous companies win a coveted green-and-white "USDA Organic" seal on an array of products.

Incredible shrinking sheep blamed on climate change

Sheep living on a remote island off the coast of Scotland have been shrinking for 20 years. Now it seems shorter winters caused by climate change are responsible.

Los Angeles will end use of coal-fired power

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Los Angeles will eliminate the use of electricity made from coal by 2020, replacing it with power from cleaner renewable energy sources, Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa said.
Consumers of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, the largest city-owned utility in the United States with 1.45 million electricity customers, will see higher power bills in the fight against climate change, he added in his inaugural speech for his second four-year term as mayor on Wednesday.

Indian FM urges 'ambitious but fair' climate targets

TOKYO (AFP) ? India's foreign minister on Friday called for an ambitious but fair greenhouse gas reduction target under a new climate treaty, saying any pact should not hinder the economic growth of developing countries.

Study: Tropical rain band is shifting north - Warming suspected; freshwater shortages for some Pacific isles likely

Earth's most prominent rain band, near the equator, has been moving north at an average rate of almost a mile a year for three centuries, likely because of a warming world, scientists say.
The band supplies fresh water to almost a billion people and affects climate elsewhere.
If the migration continues, some Pacific islands near the equator that today enjoy abundant rainfall may be starved of freshwater by midcentury or sooner, researchers report in the July issue of the journal Nature Geoscience.

Cosalt plans ?20m share placing - Financial Times

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 23:57:00 GMT

Cosalt is planning to raise up to ?20m ($33m) through a placing and open offer to strengthen its balance sheet in order to be able to expand its marine safety business. The news sent the shares, which have fallen from above 400p over the past two ...

Planning a barbie at the weekend? We grill the experts for the secrets ... - Daily Mail

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 23:28:00 GMT

Once upon a time, we British were famous around the world for the undisputed awfulness of our food, and no element of British cuisine was more justly derided than our barbecues. The Aussies could effortlessly fling a few shrimps on the barbie and ...

House climate bill wouldn't cut U.S. oil dependence much - Bradenton Herald

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 23:00:00 GMT

WASHINGTON - Despite its title as the "American Clean Energy and Security Act," the energy and climate bill that the House of Representatives passed recently takes only a modest step toward reducing U.S. dependence on foreign oil. Two studies project ...

Toronto stock market opens flat with U.S. markets closed for ... - News1130.com

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 13:48:00 GMT

TORONTO - The Toronto stock market opened flat Friday on a low volume of trading as U.S. markets remained closed in observance of the Independence Day holiday. The New York Mercantile Exchange was also closed for the holiday, but oil prices fell for ...

PetroChina to More Than Triple Sulige Gas Output in Six Years - Bloomberg

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 01:17:00 GMT

By Bloomberg News July 3 (Bloomberg) -- PetroChina Co. , the nation?s largest oil and gas producer, plans to more than triple its annual natural gas output from the Sulige field in northern China in six years as demand for the cleaner-burning fuel ...

Love it or hate it, climate change bill heads to Senate - Las Vegas Sun

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 21:49:00 GMT

I rise today in support of this bill. It addresses climate change, promotes the development of clean-energy sources, and brings us closer to our goal of securing America?s energy independence. This bill also takes extra steps to protect consumers ...

Platts Broker-Based Indexes for Coal and Emissions for July 1

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 02:30:45 GMT

Washington (Platts) -- 1Jul2009 -- Platts weekly broker emissions indexes, along with its monthly broker emissions indexes and the daily OTC coal broker indexes are posted here so all market participants can evaluate our results. Our "Methodology...

Risk Assessments: Playing the "What If?" Game

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:15:12 GMT

I spend a lot of time playing "What if?" It is an important aspect of my line of work, but we all do this to some extent. I do it when I am driving - "What if that car at the next intersection pulls out in front of me?" - when I am working "What if that high pressure line ruptures?" - and at home - "What if I wake up and find the house is on fire?" I also spend a lot of time pondering the question "What if there are energy shortages in the near future?"

When we do this, we are generally trying to understand the potential consequences of various responses to a given situation. This sort of exercise is a form of risk assessment, and it is a very important tool for making decisions about events that could impact the future. Sometimes the consequences are minor. If I choose not to take an umbrella to work and it rains, there is probably a small consequence. If I choose to pass a car on a blind hill, the consequence may be severe, and may extend to other people.

In this essay I will explore the implications of the question: "What if I am wrong on peak oil or global warming?"

What If I'm Wrong About Peak Oil?

I guess it was my training as a scientist that instilled in me the position that conclusions are tentative. (I was two years into a Ph.D. in chemistry before I decided the job prospects were better for a chemical engineer). They are subject to revision as additional data come in, and you have to always be willing to consider that your preconceptions may be wrong. But acknowledging that I could be wrong has to go hand-in-hand with the consequences of being wrong.

I have formulated a lot of ?what if? questions around timing and consequences of peak oil. My view on peak oil is that it presents an enormous challenge for humanity, that global oil production will peak within 10 years (if it hasn?t peaked already), and that there is no easy solution. I see spiking oil prices and the subsequent fallout as a prelude to what lies ahead. These views have influenced my profession, where I have chosen to live, what I read, and what I say to others. Fear of peak oil has influenced some people not to attend college, or to quit their jobs and move away to remote locations. It has even caused some people to decide against having children. But what if I am wrong about the timing/consequences of peak oil? How would that impact me?

For me, this one has low consequences. If I am wrong and we have adequate oil supplies for the next 40 years, then perhaps I live a more frugal life than I might have otherwise. I prefer to walk, ride a bike, or take a train instead of hopping into a car to drive some place. When I drive, I probably drive a smaller car than I would have otherwise. I grow some of my own food. Then again, I have always been frugal, so perhaps I would have done all of these things regardless. The one thing that it may have impacted upon in a major way is my interest in energy.

But if I am right, then I have plans in place to manage the impact as well as I can. Those plans start with minimizing my energy consumption. It is my small insurance policy. If the worst case turns out to be right, then there isn't a lot I can do except try to make sure my family and I are in circumstances that minimize the risk. Further, I have done a lot of work that is aimed at improving our energy security in the years ahead. That work includes promoting renewable energy technologies that I think can make a long-term contribution, but also arguing for conservation, and better utilization of our own natural resources. So if I am correct, then I have chosen to work on things that have the potential to mitigate the consequences.

But what if the other side is wrong? Government agencies devoted to monitoring our natural resources often reassure us that there is plenty of oil for decades to come. But what if the government, industry, etc. turn out to have missed the mark on peak oil? In that case I think we will be in for a lot of trouble.

If the peak comes quickly and the decline is steep, I believe we will be wholly unprepared. There is not a cheap, easy substitute for oil. Much higher prices will be inevitable in such a situation. Industries - such as the airline industry - won't be prepared and we will see perhaps entire sectors go bankrupt. While I do believe that over time we can transition to natural gas vehicles (and I don?t think the situation with natural gas is as dire), that will take some time. If the government is wrong and the peak happens much sooner than expected, we will be in for a very difficult transition period.

In other words, their consequences of being wrong are much worse than my consequences of being wrong. If they are wrong, people may starve during a difficult post-peak transition. If I am wrong, we move to a healthier, more sustainable lifestyle.

What If I am Wrong on Global Warming?

Another question I think a lot about is "What If I am Wrong on Global Warming?" I come down on the side that human activity is contributing to global warming, yet the scientist in me reminds me that "conclusions are tentative." But each camp has elements that feel ? all too often with religious fervor - that the other side?s position will lead to either environmental or economic devastation. So we get a lot of vitriol in this discussion, which I don't like.

If the Al Gore contingent is correct, then we are facing some very major problems. As I have written before, I don't expect us to be able to rein in carbon dioxide emissions, so I see a future with ever higher atmospheric CO2, and potential environmental devastation if Al Gore is correct.

On the other hand are those who believe that human activities play little or no role in global warming. They view the opposition as putting global economies at risk by putting a price on carbon emissions. While I think environmental devastation is a much worse consequence than economic stagnation, the impact of that could be pretty severe as well.

What I would prefer to see ? instead of two opposing camps dug into bunkers and tossing verbal grenades at each other ? are more open minds on both sides. I would like to see the sides posing the question ?What if I am wrong?? Another good question to ask in these sorts of debates is ?Is there any evidence that would convince me that I am wrong?? I don't know what scientists will say when they look back at this issue a hundred years from now, but I don't want to see the debate squelched by those who shouted the loudest.

In conclusion, I never discount the possibility that I could be wrong about any number of things. I would say that precious few of my views are embedded in granite. That's why I write; to discuss, debate, learn, and change my mind when reason dictates that. But before you decide to respond to this essay with a strongly worded opinion, ask yourself the question ?What if I am wrong??

Power bills could soar under Obama's energy plan - WRAL

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 23:22:00 GMT

The bill, which Obama has said will reduce the nation's dependence on foreign oil and clean the air, calls for a reduction of carbon emissions by 17 percent by 2020, and for 20 percent of the nation's energy to be renewable ? such as wind and solar ...

DrumBeat: July 2, 2009

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 13:39:49 GMT

The alternative choice - Steven Chu wants to save the world by transforming its largest industry: energy

WHETHER Steven Chu, America?s energy secretary, would be flattered or horrified by the comparison is unclear, but he and Margaret Thatcher have something important in common. They are both scientists who have risen to political power. That Mr Chu has a Nobel prize for physics, whereas Lady Thatcher swiftly abandoned chemistry for the more lucrative pastures of the law, does not make the comparison unfair. What matters is that both of them understand something that some politicians from softer intellectual backgrounds often seem to forget: you cannot negotiate with nature. Nor can you ignore it, for it will not go away.
Lady Thatcher showed her mettle in this regard in 1989, when she became the first politician of stature to raise the alarm about global warming. When her adviser Crispin Tickell pointed out to her that the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was rising and that carbon dioxide was a greenhouse gas, she got the point instantly and alerted the world in a speech to the United Nations. Mr Chu?s job is harder: he is charged with spotting, nurturing and promoting promising energy technologies, thereby helping America to create the tools that the world needs to wean itself off fossil fuels.

Wesley Clark: Ethanol's field general

(Fortune Magazine) -- If ever there were an industry in need of a general, it's the ethanol industry. Already under siege from food companies blaming biofuels for rising grocery prices, ethanol companies are now seeing their profit margins crushed by falling prices for their product. Compounding the problem, many environmentalists -- who five minutes ago seemed to be in ethanol's corner -- have turned against the corn-based fuel.
Reporting for duty in ethanol's counterattack: Wesley Clark, the retired four-star general and former NATO commander, who signed on in February as co-chairman of an upstart ethanol trade group called Growth Energy. Clark, 64, has fully embraced the private sector since ending his run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004. In addition to co-chairing Growth Energy, Clark is on the board of Dutch wind-turbine maker Juhl Wind and serves as chairman of the New York investment bank Rodman & Renshaw. At Growth Energy, Clark has lobbied against efforts in California to hold ethanol accountable for deforestation in Brazil, he's pushed back against claims that diverting corn to ethanol drives up food prices, and he's spoken out in favor of a Growth Energy proposal to increase the maximum allowable ethanol blend in conventional gasoline to 15% from 10%.

Oil Falls, Gasoline Drops to 5-Week Low as U.S. Payrolls Slip

(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell and gasoline slipped to a five-week low on a report showing the U.S. unemployment rate rose last month, a signal that fuel demand in the world?s largest energy-consuming country will be slow to rebound.

Energetic blackmail

IN BLACKMAIL timing can be everything. The governments of Russia and Ukraine have cause to ponder this after failing to extract billions of euros from the European Union in the name of keeping Russian gas flowing to Europe next winter.
Thanks to recession and competition from cheaper suppliers, European demand for Russian gas has fallen. It is also summer. So right now governments and gas companies are unusually brave over threats to cut off the gas. They have resisted pressure to give Ukraine a huge loan that both the Russians and Ukraine?s squabbling leaders say is needed to avoid another dispute like the one that blocked Russian gas in January, affecting 18 of the 27 EU countries. Whether Europe?s nerve will hold as winter approaches remains to be seen. Russia supplies 42% of all EU gas imports, and its share is rising.

Russia's Gazprombank puzzles analysts as NPLs stable

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Gazprombank, the banking arm of Russian state energy company Gazprom, puzzled analysts on Thursday by showing its share of non-performing loans (NPLs) stayed unchanged in the first quarter of 2009.
Top Russian banks such as state-controlled Sberbank (SBER03.MM) and VTB (VTBR.MM) are struggling with losses as bad loans rise.

BP shuts alternative energy HQ

BP has shut down its alternative energy headquarters in London, accepted the resignation of its clean energy boss and imposed budget cuts in moves likely to be seen by environmental critics as further signs of the oil group moving "back to petroleum".

Beacon Power, Nordic Windpower Get Loan Guarantees

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Energy Department issued $59 million in conditional loan guarantees to Beacon Power Corp. and Nordic Windpower, part of a four-year-old program for alternative energy that has yet to finance any projects.
The conditional loan guarantees announced by the department today, which are the second and third issued, are contingent on the companies providing further financing.

Estimating errors in U.S. oil demand

(Reuters) - The market is transfixed by the weekly inventory and consumption estimates for crude oil and products published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). But the backward-looking nature of parts of the reporting system makes it liable to miss turning points. Consumption and exports numbers are especially vulnerable to errors.
For the last three years, preliminary estimates for U.S. petroleum consumption (more formally called "product supplied to the domestic market") published in the EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) have been revised down when more comprehensive data becomes available in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) published six weeks later. The core of the problem is the statistical system's struggle to account for soaring exports of refined products, especially distillates to Europe. Because the agency is systematically under-estimating exports, it is over-estimating consumption, and being forced to trim the figures when more data becomes available.

John Michael Greer: Where Economics Fails

Understand current economic thought and you understand most of the mistakes that are dragging industrial civilization down to ruin. The Energy Information Administration (EIA), a branch of the US government, has become infamous in the peak oil scene over the last decade or so for publishing estimates of future petroleum production that have no relationship to geological reality. Their methodology, as described in EIA publications, was simply to estimate probable increases in demand, and then to assume that increased demand would automatically be met with a corresponding increase in supply. Quite a few peak oil writers have suggested some dark conspiracy behind this blithe disregard for the limits of a finite planet, but it takes only a few minutes? worth of reading to identify the real culprit as the standard notion of the law of supply and demand taught in every first-year economics textbook today.

Iraq to push back second oil bidding round

Iraq is planning to push back its second oil bidding round to develop 11 oil and gas fields after a disappointing showing in the first offer.
The process had been scheduled to be completed by end of this year.
But Oil Ministry spokesman Assem Jihad says the second round will be held at a later date that has yet to be determined.

Oil?s history, for better or worse

On June 1 1932, some 7? months after they sunk a drill into the ground in the shadow of a scraggly hill called the ?Mountain of Smoke?, a group of prospectors and scallywags led by the New Zealand owner of a pharmacy in Aden hit oil 35km south of Manama.
Today, like a metal shrub with twisted branches, a capped well juts from the rocky ground marking the original spot where the massively prolific Arabian Oil Basin was first tapped.
Nearby is a plaque commemorating Jabal Ad Dukhan No 1 and a museum bearing the sign, ?It All Began in Bahrain?.

Pakistan: Vegetables getting out of common man's reach

LAHORE - The transporters, businessmen, growers, consumers and general public have strongly rejected the sharp increase in the fuel prices announced by the so-called people friendly PPP-led government and said that it would push more people below the poverty line besides multiplying the miseries of the already inflation-stricken public.

Weak auto sales continue into June

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Most major automakers reported weaker than expected U.S. sales for June, proving yet again that the industry's pain hasn't ended. But there are some glimmers of hope.

Rail crisis: London-to-Edinburgh route to be nationalised

The government is to nationalise Britain's largest rail franchise after National Express confirmed that it can no longer afford the ?1.4bn east coast contract.
In a serious blow to franchise policy, the Department for Transport will take the London-to-Edinburgh route into public ownership at the end of the year. The transport secretary, Lord Adonis, said the contract will be put back up for auction to private companies at the end of next year but it is expected to fetch much less than ?1.4bn, leaving the state with a gap in its rail budget.
"It is simply unacceptable to reap the benefits of contracts when times are good, only to walk away from them when times become more challenging," said Adonis.

First Biodiesel Pipeline Starts Operations

A commercial shipment of biodiesel has moved through a pipeline in the United States for the first time, according to Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, a pipeline company.
A 5 percent biodiesel blend moved from Mississippi to Georgia, and also from Mississippi to Virginia, via the Plantation Pipe Line Company, which is owned jointly by Kinder Morgan with a 51 percent stake, and Exxon Mobil with 49 percent. Last December, Kinder Morgan announced that the nation?s first ethanol pipeline had begun service.

Heading into the holiday: Fewer miles at higher cost

The nation heads into the Independence Day holiday weekend amid the longest and steepest decline in driving since the invention of the automobile.
Since the number of miles traveled by motor vehicles in the USA peaked in November 2007, the nation's 12-month total has dropped by 123 billion miles, or slightly more than 4%. That's a bigger decline than the drop of just above 3% during the 1979-80 Iranian revolution that triggered a spike in gasoline prices in the USA.
The 4% drop is the equivalent of taking between 8 million and 10 million drivers off the road.
"We may be witnessing the beginning of a fundamental shift in American driving habits," says Ed McMahon, senior research fellow at the Urban Land Institute, a non-profit group that promotes innovative development.

Oil Falls to Lowest in a Week on Forecast U.S. Shed More Jobs

(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell to the lowest in a week before a report forecast to show U.S. unemployment increased last month, signaling the world?s largest energy user remains mired in recession.
U.S. fuel demand in the four weeks ended June 26 dropped 5.8 percent from a year earlier, while demand for distillate fuel including heating oil and diesel, fell 9.4 percent, according to a Department of Energy report yesterday. The Labor Department will likely report the U.S. shed an additional 365,000 jobs in June, a Bloomberg survey showed.

Barclays Raises U.S. Oil Forecast 15% on Fundamentals

(Bloomberg) -- Barclays Plc raised its third-quarter forecast for West Texas Intermediate crude oil by 14.5 percent from an estimate in June, citing expectations for fundamentals in commodity markets to return to ?normalcy.?
The forecast for benchmark futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange was revised to $71 a barrel from $62, Barclays Capital analysts led by Paul Horsnell said in a weekly report yesterday. Barclays increased its projections for Brent crude by 9.5 percent to $69 a barrel and left forecasts for the fourth quarter and 2010 unchanged.

?Oil over $100 would hurt global economy?

"Hopefully in the third quarter and fourth quarter, it won't surpass $100 as this will fuel recession again," Sheikh Ahmad al-Abdullah al-Sabah told reporters in parliament.
Oil had already hit the price that Opec was looking for in the second half of the year, he said. Speculators and US dollar weakness were among the factors behind the rise, Sheikh Ahmad said.

Asian LNG Spot Trade May Shrink 73% This Year, Repsol Says

(Bloomberg) -- Shipments of liquefied natural gas to Asia from the Atlantic Ocean area may shrink by about 73 percent this year as Japan and South Korea, the world?s biggest buyers, cut imports, said an official from Repsol YPF SA.
Supplies of spot LNG from projects from countries such as in Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Egypt and Algeria may fall to about 4 million metric tons this year, or to 2006 levels, from about 15 million last year, said Strategic Planning Director Ane Arino Ochoa at Spain?s largest oil company.
?We expect a reduction in LNG traded this year because of the economic crisis,? she said after speaking at the Next Generation LNG conference in Singapore yesterday. ?There will be a surplus of LNG in the global markets in the short term.?

India Gas Demand Set to Rise as Fertilizer Makers Add Capacity

(Bloomberg) -- India?s demand for natural gas is set to increase as fertilizer makers spend as much as 50 billion rupees ($1 billion) in the next three years to boost capacity by 35 percent, an official said.
Fertilizer companies may need an additional 24 million cubic meters a day of gas to feed new plants and existing ones that are switching from using naphtha and fuel oil, Satish Chander, director-general of the Fertilizer Association of India, said by telephone from New Delhi.

India - Econ survey: decontrol petrol, diesel prices

NEW DELHI (Reuters) ? India should end controls on prices of petrol and diesel and allow entry for private and foreign firms in the energy sector, a finance ministry survey said on Thursday.

PVM Loses About $10 Million in Unauthorized Trades

Bloomberg) -- PVM Oil Futures Ltd., a unit of the world?s biggest broker of over-the-counter oil derivatives, said it lost just under $10 million as a result of unauthorized trading in futures contracts on June 30.
?As a result of a series of unauthorized trades, substantial volumes of futures contracts were held by PVM,? Robin Bieber, director of PVM Oil Futures Ltd., said in an e- mailed statement today. ?When this was discovered the positions were closed in an orderly fashion. PVM suffered a loss totaling a little under $10 million.?

BP Pay Changes for Contract Workers Threatens North Sea Strikes

(Bloomberg) -- BP Plc, Europe?s second-largest oil company, plans to cut pay for North Sea contract staff, risking strike action later this year.
BP wants to reduce the cost of offshore platform workers employed through contractors and plans to end discretionary payments including overtime built-in to the day rate and automatic night shift payments. The changes cut pay as much as 20 percent for 800 people, union leaders say.

Are we at the peak of oil production?

There are some that believe that the ever increasing rise in gas prices over the past years is a clear indication of peaking. The spike of oil prices and crash in 2008 is said to be the peak point of production. This is a question we cannot fully know the answers to till probably 5 or 10 years out. Raymond James, the investment company that the Buccaneers football team?s stadium is named for, released a press release declaring peak oil: ?represents a paradigm shift of historic proportions. Unfortunately, mankind better get ready to live in a peak oil world because we believe the ?peak? is now behind us.?

Flashing Lights on the Console

KMO welcomes Albert K. Bates back to the program, and they sit down together for a chat with Richard Heinberg, author of Peak Everything. Albert admits that he's finding it hard to maintain his "soft lander" status in the face of mounting evidence, and Richard talks about the themes in his new book, Blackout: Coal, Climate and the Last Energy Crisis.

Our idea of progress must change

We've raised our standard of living to record heights -- so high, in fact that, if everyone lived like we do in North America, we would need three or four earths. To keep our way of life rolling along, we need to make more things. As the satirical newspaper The Onion put it, quoting a fictional Chinese worker: "Often, when we're assigned a new order for, say, 'salad shooters,' I will say to myself, there's no way that anyone will ever buy these . . . One month later, we will receive an order for the same product, but three times the quantity . . I hear that [North] Americans can buy anything they want, and I believe it, judging from the things I've made for them. And I also hear that, when they no longer want an item, they simply throw it away. So wasteful and contemptible."
But such is our personal measure of progress: whoever has the most stuff when they die, wins.

Nova Scotia needs a new deal

I want to come back to a second to the beginning of this. I'm not sure that what we want to look at is called "recovery." I think we're talking about a restructuring of the economic system and it won't look the same---it can't look the same. I've got a quote here from George Monbiot, who says, "Climate breakdown, peak oil and resource depletion will all dwarf the current financial crisis, in both financial and humanitarian terms." So unless we start thinking long-term, this current economic meltdown is going to seem like very small potatoes.

Feds, Colo. hash out agreement on oil, gas rules

DENVER ? Colorado's new oil and gas rules, denounced by the industry as the most burdensome in the country, now apply to federal land as well as private and state land.
Stricter oil and gas regulations took effect on private and state land in Colorado on April 1. Enforcement of the rules was delayed on federal land to give state and federal officials time to sort through any conflicts.

Oil Contract Rows Rock Uganda Ahead of Production

The Ugandan government is embroiled in disputes with politicians and activists over its failure to reveal the contents of contracts with oil-exploration companies operating in the country ahead of the start of oil production on the Ugandan side of the Albertine Rift on the country's western border.

Iran 'disqualifies' EU from talks

The EU is no longer qualified to take part in talks on Iran's nuclear programme, Iran's military chief says.
Maj-Gen Hassan Firouzabadi, Iran's chief of staff, accused the EU of "interference" in riots which followed June's disputed presidential elections.

Kenya unveils renewable energy drive

NAIROBI (AFP) ? Kenya on Wednesday unveiled extensive plans to invest in renewable energy, including free distribution of one million energy-saving light bulbs in exchange for ordinary bulbs.
The measures announced by Prime Minister Raila Odinga also include subsidising the price of solar water heaters for public institutions, firms and households.

Kenya: Sex in a Time of Famine

"Prostitution seems to be the only option out of hunger. The relief food offered by the government is too little and irregular," says Mr Keleli.
About 75 per cent of people in this region live below the poverty line. The land is semi arid and unproductive, with very little economic activity.
Charcoal burning has for a long time been the only means of upkeep. But with the current drought, trees have diminished, leaving residents with no reliable source of livelihood.

Clean Energy Investment Leaps In Second Quarter

LONDON - Global investment in clean energy and climate-friendly technologies leapt in the last three months but full-year levels won't recover until 2010 or 2011, analysts said on Wednesday.
Falling energy demand and more expensive debt have hurt large renewable projects for example in wind and solar power. Recession has cut risk appetite, curbing funding for clean technology start-ups.
But global clean energy investment rebounded in the past three months, after a 44 percent collapse in the first quarter, and stimulus spending could spur a return to last year's funding levels in 2010, according to research group New Energy Finance.
"It's a big bounce back," said Michael Liebreich, NEF chief executive, referring to preliminary numbers to be published later this week or next.

Brazil launches bus powered by hydrogen fuel cells

SAO PAULO ? Sao Paulo state officials have launched what they say is Latin America's first passenger bus with an electric engine powered by hydrogen fuel cells.
Gov. Jose Serra says the bus will start test runs on the streets of South America's biggest city in August and will be joined by three similarly powered vehicles next year.

The Future of Transport

With Peak Oil just around the corner, humans are going to be faced with very few options for mobility in the future ? stop travelling or find alternative forms of transport. Imagine travelling with dozens of balloons or in a futuristic-looking helium ship or maybe in a car made of vegetables and powered by chocolate. Sound too good to be true? Check out our collection of the craziest forms of green transport.

UK Wind Boom Spikes Prices, Threatens Plants: Study

LONDON - The dramatic growth in wind turbines around the British Isles may lead to huge spikes in power prices by 2030 and threaten the viability of backup plants needed for calm periods, according to Poyry Energy Consulting.
Britain and Ireland have ambitious targets to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions, with wind turbines expected to reduce most of the climate warming gasses from the power sector.
But the level of wind energy envisaged will lead to extreme price swings by 2030, with times of negative prices when the wind blows hard and spikes to almost 8,000 pounds per megawatt hour when the wind drops, according to a new study by Poyry.

Group: World failing to halt biodiversity decline

GENEVA ? Governments are failing to stem a rapid decline in biodiversity that is now threatening extinction for almost half the world's coral reef species, a third of amphibians and a quarter of mammals, a leading environmental group warned Thursday.
"Life on Earth is under serious threat," the International Union for Conservation of Nature said in a 155-page report that describes the past five years of a losing battle to protect species, natural habitats and geographical regions from the devastating effects of man.

Brazil flora risk greater than thought: study

RIO DE JANEIRO (AFP) ? Nearly 2,300 plant species are at risk of disappearing from flora-rich Brazil, many more than once thought, according to an academic study released on Wednesday.
The research, carried out by 175 scientists, indicates the Brazilian government has dramatically underestimated the risk to the country's plant species caused by deforestation, fires and urbanization.

Controlling Immigration Critical to Meeting Goals on U.S. Greenhouse Emissions, Finds New Report by FAIR

Immigration, Energy and the Environment addresses America's stifled immigration policy debate: it finds that America's massive immigration-fueled population growth was the single largest contributing factor to the nation's increased energy consumption and carbon emissions over the past 35 years. Even without a massive amnesty for illegal aliens supported by President Obama and congressional leaders, immigration will be the driving factor as U.S. population approaches the half billion mark by mid-century.

Canada and Japan blocking climate-change deal, Sir David King warns

Canada and Japan were blocking a possible deal on climate change at the Copenhagen summit, Sir David King, the former Chief Scientific Adviser, warned yesterday.
Speaking at the World Conference of Science Journalists, Sir David said that the two countries had stepped into the breach left by the Bush Administration, which had strongly resisted cutting CO2 emissions.
?Copenhagen is faltering at the moment,? said Sir David. ?The Americans are now fully engaged. But several countries are blocking the process.?

Senate May Pass U.S. Climate Bill, Reject Treaty, Kerry Says

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Senate may pass legislation to slow climate change and then fail to approve a global treaty that commits nations to do so, Senator John Kerry said.
Kerry, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, will be a leader in Senate efforts to place the first domestic curbs on greenhouse gases, after the House approved a measure last week. Even if a Senate bill passes, there may not be enough support to ratify an international accord incorporating the U.S. commitments, the Massachusetts Democrat said in an interview.

China blasts US climate bill

BEIJING (AFP) ? China said on Thursday that it was "firmly" opposed to provisions in a new US clean energy bill that will make it easier to impose trade penalties on nations that reject limits to globe-warming pollution.
"China is firmly opposed to such measures," vice foreign minister He Yafei told reporters in Beijing.
"We are firmly against such attempts to advance trade protectionism under the pretext of climate change. It is not conducive to world economic recovery. It serves nobody's interests."

Platts Broker-Based Indexes for Coal and Emissions for June 30

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 02:24:33 GMT

Washington (Platts) -- 30Jun2009 -- Platts weekly broker emissions indexes, along with its monthly broker emissions indexes and the daily OTC coal broker indexes are posted here so all market participants can evaluate our results. Our "Methodology...

Dopamine Returned on Energy Invested (DREI)?

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:15:29 GMT

On a steamy Friday night my 10 year old son and I headed over to the rodeo grounds. It is only about a mile from our home and within the city limits, though on the eastern edge where the town merges into the valley landscape of pastures and tree-lined creeks and ditches.

As we approached, it was obvious that a large crowd had gathered. A long line extended from the ticket booth and the stands looked nearly full. Friends had tipped me off about what was going on only 10 minutes earlier, while thousands of others had obviously been looking forward to this event.

It was a truck pull.

On a hot summer night truck pull fans fill the stadium at the rodeo grounds in Willits, CA. Behind the dust is a weighted sled, called Terminator, that eventually forces the truck to stall. Truck pull images by Ree Slocum.

I place this sport in the same category as NASCAR, demolition derby, drag racing, and motor cross: An internal combustion engine of one sort or another propels a vehicle with a driver. Speed, power, agility, longevity or luck may sort among winners and losers. In this particular version, a weighted sled steadily increases the resistance the further it travels. Vehicles pull until they stop, usually in an engine stall and a cloud of dust.

Because Willits is a relatively small town, anonymity is not possible once you become involved in community affairs. I am on the board of a couple of non-profits related to energy and sustainability, have a radio show on a local station, two kids in the school system, and run a small farm that serves local customers. I brought attention to the subject of peak oil in October of 2005 by showing the film The End of Suburbia every other week for about a year.

I offer this background because people who know me would likely surmise (correctly) that if I were ?supreme ruler? nothing like this would ever happen.

I asked a city councilor in attendance (the same person who alerted me to its occurrence) if this event is in conflict with the City?s pledge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 90% below 2005 levels by 2050, a goal I had a hand in developing? The City of Willits and a who?s who of community organizations also signed a sustainability vision statement I wrote. Was this part of that vision? She just smiled and remarked that energy isn?t expensive enough yet.

I was recognized by a member of the Frontier Day?s Committee, which are the folks who run the rodeo grounds. He sided up to me to verbalize how he saw the equations balancing out with respect to the spectacle. ?Using a lot of fuel, aren?t they?? He spoke directly into my ear to compensate for the cylinder blasts. ?But you know, this is a big crowd and it really helps us cover the cost of our lease. It?s the first time we?ve done this.? I simply smiled and gave a nod.

The crowd was big. Ten times bigger, in fact, than any I had been able to attract with notions of peak oil, economic collapse, relocalization, renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, or a host of other hot topics. What should I make of that?

My son shouted out a running commentary that reflected my own mixed emotions. As the announcer explained in testosterone-laden tones, the turbo diesels spent about a minute ?Building their Boost!? before releasing the clutch. During this process, black soot emerged from pairs of thick chrome pipes to neck craning heights, which served to tense the crowd. On several such occasions my son looked up at me to say, ?They?re polluting the Earth!? And yet, perhaps ten seconds later as the truck stalled some 300 ft down the dirt track we whooped excitedly with everybody else.

Our brains were being whip lashed by dueling neurotransmitters. The neocortex was giving us one signal, namely ?Polluting Earth Bad,? while the limbic system was giving us countervailing signals, specifically ?THIS IS SO COOL!? In fact, that is the other phrase my son used often that night. So on a cycle that repeated every several minutes, I would pump my fists and shout ?YEAH!?, but as the rush of dopamine waned, nagging concerns regarding the energy expenditure would re-emerge. Sometimes the motions of a really fine vehicle, such as the ones propelled by jet engines, would keep me ?amped? even while the track was being prepared between runs by rumbling dozers, rollers, and the periodic water truck. (I am not going to delve into the neurophysiology and evolution of the brain in this post. Please see this one instead.)

I found myself drawn to the particular form of White Lightening. It wasn't of the largest class of trucks, and the length of its pull disappointed somewhat, but the elegance of its lines and the beauty of its exhaust flames can't be denied.

It wasn?t only the fuel injection on a 2000 hp engine going full tilt for 10 seconds that bothered me, but the knowledge that these beasts were coming from all over the state. The names of the vehicles I remember include White Lightning, Semper Fi and Get it Done (which ended up being the big winner, pulling the Terminator sled over 350 ft, dragging it out of bounds and finishing in a perilous side-ways slide). The geographic names included San Luis Obispo, Red Bluff and Bakersfield. And my son and I constituted the majority of the subpopulation that made it to the rodeo grounds via the most energy efficient transportation device every made?the humble bike running at less than one horsepower and burning non-fossil carbohydrate fuels.

I don?t want anybody to get the impression that I judge the people who regularly attend diversions such as the truck pull much differently than my own cohort. The following is a list of low Dopamine Returned on Energy Invested (DREI) activities undertaken by friends and family. These are people who I have personally addressed on the subjects dear to readers of The Oil Drum, and some of them even help me try to ?save? civilization, the planet, and other important stuff.

? Fly to Las Vegas to see Cirque du Soleil. This is remarkably common and not limited to any one individual. The most recent ?must see show? was The Beatles Love, and I admit it looks awfully tempting!

Although I have not seen the performance, I gather from this image that I would be pleasured by it.

? Spend a week on a Cajun Dance Cruise ship. My wife and I are invited to this one yearly, and it is especially difficult to pass up.

? Ski in the Rockies. Ski in the Sierras, etc.

? Vacations in Europe, Asia, etc.

I haven?t done any carbon footprint analysis to compare the truck pull to the diversions more in line with my own tastes and those of my peers. Obviously they all use gargantuan amounts of energy.

I am a firm believer in the notion that the one-time endowment of Earthly oil should be viewed as a precious gift, and that if any of it needs to be used to it should be allocated towards deploying the technology and infrastructure that would lower our ecological footprint enough not to despoil our home. Anytime I see gallons of fossil fuels being burned I realize that the btus released are enormous, dwarfing the potential power output of human bodies or domesticated animals. Without a renewable energy infrastructure in place before depletion of oil sets in, I fear social convulsions of the worst sort. For example, if we lose our energy slaves will we somehow justify human ones again?

And yet we burn it up so frivolously. This final quote from my son summarizes the situation aptly: "Dad, this is so crazy!"

Nate Hagens and I discussed this topic as part of one of our radio interviews. On that program Nate recommended trying to discover diversions that use little energy, in other words, have a high DREI. I doubt most of the crowd at the truck pull had listened to any of my shows. But even among those of us ?in the know,? a challenge we face is dealing with the addictive aspects of energy intensive activities.

On the way back home I met John Jeavons and related my recent experiences. He commented on a time in Mexico, where he was teaching GROW BIOINTENSIVE farming in a workshop. It was in a port city and one day an impressively enormous cruise ship loomed over the docks, its thousands of passengers disgorging into the streets and tourist shops. He thought about the amount the urine and feces produced each day on a ship like that, how much food could be grown with it, and knowing that the mineral wealth of the modern food system and the resulting effluent came from mines and natural gas wells that were low entropy geological riches scooped up using machines running on oil?and yet it was all being dispersed into the ocean.

We like to share stories on Campfire. So I?d like to hear from you about the following:

1. Have you been able to move away from low DREI habits and replace them with high DREI ones?
2. What experiences have you had like mine and John Jeavons?, being simultaneously awed and disgusted by the excesses of our world?
3. Why should I deprive myself of the great hedonistic pleasures of the age of oil if I can still afford them since very few others willingly curtail?
4. Is information sufficient to change behavior, and if not, what does?
5. I recognized very few faces at the truck pull, even though I live in a small town. What does this say about the cultural diversity of society and does that diversity make it more or less challenging to adapt to change?

Alcatraz: the TOD-ASPO gathering

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:03:35 GMT

Nate Hagens gives his presentation at the "Peak Summit" in Alcatraz. 114 slides in 45 minutes for what may be a true world record in information concentration.

The joint TOD-ASPO summit in Alcatraz, Italy, is over. It was held on the 27-28 June 2009, with the participation of more than fifty people that came mainly from Europe, but also from the US and even from Australia. The participants exchanged views on such subjects as resource depletion, oil and gas, energy security, climate change, complexity, the collapse of the Roman Empire, economic trends, and how to catch monkeys (the last item as part of Nate Hagens talk).

The idea of the summit was to do something more informal and more friendly than the standard ASPO conference. The idea was also to get together people who, so far, had only managed to speak to each other via the internet. It worked: the meeting was very lively, interesting and participated.

The success of the meeting was also helped by the friendly atmosphere and the good food (and good wine) provided by the staff of the "Libera Universit? di Alcatraz", located between Perugia and Gubbio, among hills and forest in the heart of Italy.

The meeting was jointly organized by Ugo Bardi and Rembrandt Koppelaar, with much help from other people. As soon as possible, we'll see to make the presentations available on line. More than one of the participants said that we should do it again next year. Maybe that could be done, we'll see.

DrumBeat: July 1, 2009

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 13:57:19 GMT

Irish 'energy for nothing' gizmo fails jury vetting

Based in Dublin?s Docklands near the O2 and employing 22 people, Steorn made international headlines almost three years ago when it claimed to have discovered a way to get more energy out of a gizmo than it put in. The excess, they said, could be used to power a mobile phone, run a fridge or make an MP3 player go.
Scientists doubted the claims and, when the company resisted calls to release precise details of how Orbo worked, it asked an international panel of experts to adjudicate on the device.
Steorn organised a panel of 22 independent scientists and engineers from Europe and North America chaired by Ian MacDonald, emeritus professor of electrical engineering at the University of Alberta.
?The situation was we had engaged them in February 2007 and went through a process with them,? Mr McCarthy said. Two years have passed however and the jury clearly decided that enough was enough.
It posted an announcement on its website http://stjury.ning.com that it was disbanding.
?The unanimous verdict of the jury is that Steorn?s attempts to demonstrate the claim have not shown the production of energy,? it stated. ?The jury is therefore ceasing work.?

Commentary: Interview with Charles T. Maxwell (Part 2 of 2)

ASPO: So here?s the deal?we?ll make you the Energy Czar tomorrow. Your focus is on the year 2015. Where would you put your investments, either private or public incentives? Where would you put your chips? Where would you double down?
Maxwell: We?re not going to have to help the oil industry. They already have all the help they need. I wouldn?t take away what they have but I wouldn?t add to it.
It?s a little difficult to answer because there are two different kinds of money we?re talking about: what will industry spend and where should government spend? Because if the industry is going to spend money on shale gas, which it is, then the government doesn?t have to spend any money there. Shale gas is a natural answer to the near-term energy problem; it?s one of the big answers we?ve got.

New Technology May Help Pre-Salt Oil Surveys, Bernstein Says

(Bloomberg) -- New technology may help companies exploring for oil in the so-called pre-salt area offshore Brazil, home to the largest crude find in the Americas in three decades, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co said.
Most seismic imaging bounces off salt because of its different properties, ?meaning that geophysicists are effectively working blind below salt,? Neil McMahon, a London- based analyst at Bernstein, said in a report today. ?Oil companies and seismic acquisition companies have started to develop a host of techniques to improve the situation.?

The other Gulf of Mexico: Pemex sees potential in Mexican sector

Pemex is accelerating its exploration and production strategy in the Mexican sector of the deepwater Gulf of Mexico with the objective of reversing Mexico?s declining crude oil production, explains Carlos Morales Gil, general director of Pemex E&P.

Iraqi oil licensing round runs into trouble

"It's been nearly 40 years now that Iraq has failed to live up to its oil potential," said Daniel Yergin, a Pulitzer Prize winning author and chairman of IHS CERA, an energy consultancy. "It's not a foregone conclusion that these arrangements will, in themselves, do what needs to be done. It's only a beginning, and it's an uncertain beginning."

Power crisis looms large in Karnataka

BANGALORE: Bangalore city and several cities and town in Karnataka have been facing severe shortage of power on account of inadequate rainfall in June this year. The load shedding varied from one hour to seven hours while the load shedding in other cities and towns in the state was worse. With the below normal monsoon, the state is likely to face another drought during the kharif season.
...Karnataka is also not getting its central share of about 50 MW due to the stopping of generation by an unit at the Kaiga nuclear generating station on account of shortage of nuclear fuel, the minister said.

India: Water, power woes could see diesel demand spin out of control

Mumbai/New Delhi - The power and water shortage across the country is not the best of news to oil refiners who are worried that this could lead to excessive diesel consumption at a time when they are already making losses on sale of the fuel.

ANALYSIS - New Shell CEO has toughest task in European business

LONDON (Reuters) - The new chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell Plc faces the tallest order in European business -- to make his company the continent's top earner this year, next year, and well into the next decade.

Ford boosts production 16% as June car sales show strength

DEARBORN, Mich. ? Ford is boosting its third-quarter production schedule after seeing more demand for its cars and trucks in June, the company said Monday.
Ford plans to increase production by 16% compared with the third quarter of 2008. The automaker had said it would increase production 10%, but is adding another 25,000 vehicles because it's seen some stabilization in June auto sales, to be reported Wednesday.

Honda's new hybrid disappoints

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Honda's new hybrid-only Insight, touted as a low-cost competitor to the Toyota Prius was dealt a major blow Monday after it failed to get a thumbs up from the influential magazine Consumer Reports.
"The Insight is the most disappointing Honda Consumer Reports has tested in a long time," said David Champion, director of the magazine's auto test center.

$32M available for hyropower projects

WASHINGTON (UPI) -- U.S. hydroelectric plants will get $32 million in stimulus funds for efficiency improvements and modernization, Energy Secretary Steven Chu said Tuesday.

Agriculture and Food in Crisis

?Could Food Shortages Bring Down Civilization?,? asks the title of an article by Lester Brown in Scientific American (May 2009). Just a few years ago, such a question would have seemed almost laughable. Few will be surprised by it today.
In 2008 people woke up to a tsunami of hunger sweeping the world. Although the prospect of rising hunger has loomed on the horizon for years, the present crisis seemed to come out of the blue without warning. Food riots spread through many countries in the global South as people tried to obtain a portion of what appeared to be a rapidly shrinking supply of food, and many governments were destabilized.

Another perspective on peak oil

While we will be increasing [production], it's going to be at a much higher cost. That cost, depending on what the project is and what kind of time frame you're looking at, maybe's $70-$80 a barrel is effectively the full development cost to be able to do it. So what you are seeing in Canada, in terms of very high cost [to] increase production, you are seeing in different parts of the world. Most obviously in places like offshore Brazil, deep water Gulf of Mexico, where the economic cost for bringing on new barrels is not far off from what it costs bringing on new barrels in the oil sands; meaning these are very expensive projects. So the marginal costs of these new barrels are extremely, extremely high.
So while you may have the ability to build an increase in production, it's going to be increasing production at a much different price environment than we've seen in the past. So, it's a long way of saying, I would generally speaking agree with the theory behind peak oil in that the cheap barrels have largely been found and the new barrels are going to come from much more expensive sources. If you look at marginal supply economics, the world's going to have to get used to

Gas demand set for first fall in 50 years

Global demand for gas is expected to fall in 2009 marking the first annual decline since the Fifties, a new report warns.
The International Energy Agency's (IEA) annual Natural Gas Market Review said: '[We] project that for the first time in 50 years, the world will witness a drop in global gas demand.'
It says that after a 1% increase in gas consumption in 2008, gas demand among OECD countries fell by 4% during the first quarter of 2009 - January to March - and is expected to decline further this year.

Qatar minister: Tough year ahead for oil and gas

DOHA (AFP) ? Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah warned on Tuesday that the global economic downturn will continue to hit the Gulf state's vital energy exports.
"The fallout from the economic crisis does not only hit financial institutions but other sectors, such as oil and gas," Attiyah told the fledgling Gas Exporting Countries Forum.
"The last quarter of 2008 was difficult for the energy industry and all the indicators show that this year it will witness a tough period as well."

Few Bidders to Develop Iraqi Oil and Natural Gas Fields

BAGHDAD ? The Iraqi government stumbled once again on Tuesday in its frequently delayed effort to award development rights to its most valuable oil fields. In a public auction it largely failed to attract the lucrative offers it sought from dozens of international oil companies invited to the bidding.
After the daylong event, which was broadcast live on national television, the government came away with just a single deal struck from among the six giant oil fields and two gas fields it had put up for bid.

Iraq reviews oil tenders after foreign snub

BAGHDAD (AFP) ? Iraq's cabinet was reviewing on Wednesday new bids from foreign energy firms to develop the country's oil and gas reserves, a day after being widely snubbed by companies unhappy over the terms on offer.
"Ministers are meeting and discussing the issue," an official in Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's office said after a deal was struck on Tuesday to develop only one of six oil fields up for tender.

Anxious Oil Giants Pass on Iraq

BAGHDAD -- Iraq's effort to woo foreign energy companies to help resurrect its ailing oil fields fell flat Tuesday, as most companies balked at the financial terms offered by the government despite the lure of the country's vast reserves.

No need for Iraq to sell its future cheap

The good news for Iraq is that big oil needs it more than vice versa. BP, for example, the successful bidder in one of the auctions yesterday, agreed to accept a fee of just $2 a barrel in return for the right to help develop the Rumaila field.
Iraq needs to hold its nerve. In a world where proven resources are dwindling and new oil finds are becoming scarcer ? and tougher to exploit ? it can afford to play hardball with companies moaning about the terms on offer. Big oil will eventually come back to the table.

ANALYSIS - Iraq oil auction dashes majors' bonanza hopes

For Western oil majors which have struggled to add new reserves in recent years - as the biggest reserves holders like Saudi Arabia and Russia keep their biggest fields for their state oil companies to develop - Tuesday's auction offered an unrivalled opportunity.
Investors feared the companies might even have been prepared to agree to loss-making deals simply to gain a foothold in such a prolific area.
But in the end, the two sides differed wildly on the value of the opportunity on offer and largely stuck to their guns.

Oil Rises Before Report Forecast to Show U.S. Supplies Shrank

Bloomberg) -- Oil advanced before the release of a report predicted to show that U.S. crude supplies contracted for a fourth week, stoking optimism that fuel demand will recover as the recession abates.
The Energy Department will probably report today that crude-oil stockpiles dropped 2 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg survey. Yesterday the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute said crude supplies fell by 6.8 million barrels. Oil was also boosted by rising European equities.
?It was an extremely huge stock draw,? said Hannes Loacker, a Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich analyst in Vienna. ?If we get confirmation of that data in the Energy Department, that will help prices.?

China's latest fuel price rise triggers public debate

BEIJING (Xinhua) -- China's latest fuel prices hike, which is intended to reflect rising international crude cost, sparked widespread debate as consumers grumbled that the record domestic prices were even higher than those in the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer.
The 9-10 percent state-set price rise in gasoline and diesel as of June 30, the second in a month, forced the Chinese motorists to pay more than 3 U.S. dollars a gallon, compared to an average of 2.69 U.S. dollars a gallon in the United States last week.

China oil flow up on new Kazakh pipe

China secured access to vast oil deposits in western Kazakhstan today after the energy-rich Central Asian nation said it had completed the expansion of a major oil pipeline to its eastern neighbour.
A Kazakh company in charge of the project said the first test shipment of oil had been successfully completed through the newly built Kenkiyak-Kumkol pipeline.

10 arrested in oil, gas thefts at Texas companies

ODESSA, Texas ? Ten people have been arrested in the theft of about $2 million worth of oil and gas condensate from oil companies and producers in West Texas.
The arrests Tuesday came following a seven-month investigation by a regional oil theft task force.

Busted: Russia casinos forced to close down

MOSCOW - Nearly two decades after the Soviet collapse set Russia's roulette wheels spinning again, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is calling in the chips on the gambling industry ? a symbol of the glitz and excess of Russia's oil-fueled boom.

NDP insists it won't neglect peak oil

On June 27, Horgan told the Straight at the Empire Landmark Hotel that it ?troubles? him that people think the NDP has let the public down on this issue. ?Peak oil is going to have a profound impact on how our social and economic policies evolve in British Columbia,? Horgan stated. ?I have said that repeatedly, but it may not have made its way to the streets of Vancouver.?

Peak cottaging?

Like it or not, when we come out of this recession we are going to be paying a whole lot more for energy. That simple fact will change life in Haliburton County in ways that are difficult to imagine.
If Canadian economist Jeff Rubin is correct, and he has a history of being correct, the price at the gas pumps will go up to $2 a litre when the recession ends and keep right on going up from there.
That $2 price, like the $1.30 we paid last summer, will not be the result of some sinister right-wing conspiracy. It will be set by the law of supply and demand.

Maine: Fox Islands celebrate wind power groundbreaking

Speakers throughout the morning, including Conkling, Fox Islands Electric Cooperative President Elliot Brown, Diversified Communications Chairman Horace A. Hildreth, Cianbro Corporation Chairman Peter Vigue and EOS Ventures, LLC President Tyler Fairbank, all had high praise for George Baker, the chief executive officer of Fox Islands Wind.
Baker is a professor of business administration at the Harvard University Business School who lives on Frenchboro.
"I was impressed at how he spoke with a vision for this community," said Vigue, who met Baker at the Vinalhaven home of energy expert Matthew Simmons last year.

Wind + water = untapped energy: An abundance of power exists above Earth's oceans, study finds

(PhysOrg.com) -- Wind energy over the planet's oceans is a vastly underutilized renewable resource, according to UC Irvine researchers.
At 80 meters above the ocean - the typical wind turbine height - more than 50 percent more power is available than at 10 meters, the height important to the shipping industry upon which previous wind estimates were made.

Federal court upholds Calif. ship regulations

SACRAMENTO, Calif. ? A federal court judge in Sacramento has upheld California regulations that require oceangoing ships using the state's ports to use cleaner fuel in order to reduce harmful emissions.

Dependence on Big Oil, Dirty Coal Could Cost U.S. $30 Trillion By 2030

The High Cost of Fossil Fuels: Why America Can?t Afford to Depend on Dirty Energy found that our national bill for fossil fuels in 2008 exceeded $1 trillion for the first time ever ? more than was spent on education or the military. And by 2030, we could spend as much as $1.7 trillion per year on fossil fuels ? an additional $1,500 for every man, woman, and child nationwide. The report also includes state-by-state data.
?The high fossil fuel prices we paid in 2007 and 2008, which crushed our economy, will soon become the new normal, unless we kick our dependence on fossil fuels,? said Tony Dutzik, senior policy analyst for the Frontier Group and a co-author of the report.

G8 summit to seek 80% emissions cut by 2050

TOKYO (AFP) ? The Group of Eight rich nations summit in Italy next week is likely to call on industrialised countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent by 2050, a report said Wednesday.
The reduction target is in the draft of a declaration to be issued at the end of the July 8-10 summit in L'Aquila, Italy, the Nikkei economic daily said, without naming its source.

Climate in the Senate

The House?s approval last week of a bill capping greenhouse gases was a remarkable achievement, almost unthinkable six months ago. Yet all of the hard work ? the hearings, the negotiating, the arm-twisting ? will add up to zero if the Senate cannot be persuaded to do the same, and preferably better. The country would be left with an outdated energy policy and the planet would be stuck with steadily rising emissions.
The Senate will not be an easy sell. It has rejected less ambitious climate bills before. While 60 filibuster-proof votes are needed, only 45 Senators mostly Democrats, can be counted as yes or probably yes. There are 23 fence-sitters and very little Republican support.

Voinovich Says ?Crap? in Climate Bill Will Stall U.S. Passage

(Bloomberg) -- A House-passed bill favored by President Barack Obama to curtail global warming contains ?a lot of crap? that will probably delay approval of the measure this year, Ohio Republican Senator George Voinovich said.
It would take a ?miracle? for the legislation to pass the Senate before United Nations climate talks in Copenhagen in December, Voinovich said. ?You?ve got a bill that is 1,200 pages, and there is just a lot of crap in there,? he said.

China unhappy with US climate bill

The United States set the bar too low and offered the world a poor example when it passed its climate change bill on Friday, according to a senior Chinese climate change official.

Canada, Russia Considered Climate ?Bad Boys? Among G8 Nations

(Bloomberg) -- Canada and Russia, both northern and oil-rich, are making the least progress in cutting carbon- dioxide emissions among the major economies, a new study shows.
Canada is furthest from its reduction target for the greenhouse gas under a global treaty and has made little progress compared with other Group of Eight members, according to the report commissioned by German insurer Allianz SE. Output of CO2, released by burning fossil fuels such as oil and coal, is the second-highest on a per-capita basis after the U.S., which is writing its first legislation to curb carbon emissions.

We Can Solve the Climate Crisis

The report found that eight of the nine technologies -- the exception was plug-in hybrids -- could feasibly reach gigaton scale in a bit more than a decade. Paul?s report is significant, in part, because it reflects the thinking of a many in a hurry -- other studies, particularly the very good McKinsey study on how to avoid climate disaster, look out 20 or 40 years.
?For investors, those time frames just don?t make any sense,? Paul told me. ?By 2030 or 2050, we?ll either be retired or dead. So we needed something immediate, so we can be held accountable, so we can see the results in a a time frame that matters for investors and entrepreneurs and business leaders -- 10 years.?

Arctic Permafrost Carbon ?Underestimated,? Poses Climate Threat

(Bloomberg) -- Arctic permafrost, the frozen soil beneath polar snow and ice, contains twice as much carbon as previously estimated and may spark a further increase in temperatures should global warming continue.
A study by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, or CSIRO, showed a 10 percent reduction of permafrost through warming could add 80 parts per million more of atmospheric CO2, corresponding to a temperature gain of about 0.7 degrees Celsius (3.4 degrees Fahrenheit).

It's Our Turn to Eat: How Politics Works and Why Activism is So Important

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:15:59 GMT

This is a guest post by Dave Pollard, an author and activist who blogs over at How to Save the World, and has always been one of my favorites in the blogosphere. I found this piece interesting because it elucidates many of the problems and lessons that we talk about in my interest groups/social movements course--and in turn those problems and lessons inspired some of the foundational goals that we set up The Oil Drum to fulfill: to educate and inform, and then to inspire and organize those educated and informed people to be a positive and persuasive force in a difficult, seemingly path-dependent world. Yes, that's right, you folks here at The Oil Drum are a small (and very informed) part of a larger sustainability/resource depletion social movement; and, even though we may all have different ideas about how to get to a better world, I hope that we can still agree that continuing an informed discourse about how to make it better is an important part of getting there.

After the Bioneers conference last year, I wrote about the 24 steps to make political activism more effective. And, as the chart above shows, activism has long been part of my "what you can do to help save the world" list.

Recently, however, I've become more skeptical in my writing about whether or not political activism really has any effect. Most of my attention has been focused on personal change, on adapting to the world rather than trying to make it better.

More recently still, I've begun to think that personal change is equally futile: that we cannot be other than who we are, and that the best personal coping strategy is to know and accept yourself. My friend Janene has tempered my thoughts on this somewhat; she says that while we may not be able to change who we are, we can change what we do.

To some extent this takes us full circle. If we have the opportunity and responsibility to change our behaviour, our activities, to make different choices about what we do, and don't do, what is this if not political activism? And if those actions do make a difference, then skepticism about the effectiveness of political activism is at best unwarranted, and at worst defeatist. My political activist friends have called me on this, and I promised to recant any suggestion on these pages that political activism is a waste of time and energy.

So I'm doing so. As Margaret Mead said, "Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has." She was right. Social and political movements have always pushed people and institutions to make important and meaningful change that they would not otherwise make, by appealing in part to their sense of what's fair and just and reasonable (an intellectual appeal), but more importantly by appealing to human emotion, by moving them. Without such movements there would be no movement, and we would probably be living in a world with much more slavery, violence, destruction and tyranny than the one we live in now.

I've been trying to figure out why this is so. I have a fairly optimistic view of human intention and behaviour, as befits an incurable idealist. But I also confess to being misanthropic -- I don't much like most people. I find them stupid, unimaginative, indifferent to the suffering of others, and conveniently ignorant and agnostic. It is easy to give up hope on people, and to blame "the system" that grinds the sense and sensibility out of them, and just give up.

I believe, as John Gray has argued, that we humans, like most creatures, are preoccupied with the needs of the moment. We are myopic, both in time and space -- unable to really care about what we cannot see and feel, or about what the future consequences of our actions might be. That's not a criticism, just a Darwinian truth. That is who we are.

The problem is one of scale. When something affects us, or our immediate circle, personally, it is in our nature to care about it, and, with some struggle (because in our modern world we do not get much practice building consensus, resolving conflicts, and really caring about those we haven't personally selected to be part of our networks) to resolve it congenially, fairly and effectively.

But the further away something gets from those intimate circles, the less capacity we have to understand it, to care about it, or to deal with it effectively. With distance and size it becomes remote, invisible, complex, unfathomable. We introduce hierarchy (whose effect is to increase efficiency and the concentration of power and reduce effectiveness, resilience, information-sharing and peer communication). We introduce agents, brokers, intermediaries, media and 'representatives' to whom we cede power and responsibility.

As we become more distant and as the circle becomes much larger, we cannot care as much. Soon it takes a massive fear-based propaganda machine just to make us vote, or fight a foreign 'enemy' thousands of miles away. Likewise, when politicians are far removed from their constituents, they cease to know or care what those constituents individually want or feel, and focus instead on how to broadcast messages to get re-elected. If they're business leaders, likewise removed by many layers and floors and oceans from the front line people, they cease to care about those people, and begin to think of them merely as 'resources' to be managed.

There's a new book out about government corruption in Kenya called It's Our Turn to Eat. The title refers to the appeal of each elected government to its own tribal supporters that they have to seize power and gorge themselves quickly because after the next election some other tribe will be in power and they too will look after 'their own'. The twist is that the elite in Kenya, across all tribal groups, exploits this tribal animosity and fear to distract the electorate from the fact that, whoever is in power, the elite still pull the strings, pay off the politicians, and hoard the resulting wealth. The objective is to subjugate and discourage the people, because that allows the elite to continue to rule unopposed. Then it all becomes a game of perpetuating power and wealth -- stealing elections, ever-increasing disparity, police state laws, bribes, pork, subsidies and payoffs, propaganda, intimidation, media control, divide and conquer, and massive corruption. US 2000, Kenya or Iran 2009, it doesn't matter. To think that this is a struggling-nation problem only is pure conceit. Thanks to distance, size, and scale, the benign inclinations of human nature are coopted, perverted and corrupted. Everything that works at a community level fails at the level of corporation and nation. We have shown, all over the world, again and again, that once we reach a certain size we become depraved, ungovernable.

The role of the activist is to act as a counterbalance to this perversion, to speak truth to power, to bridge the distance, to hold those who are irresponsible and unaccountable, responsible and accountable. To intervene. To break down what is already broken. To enable what the people really want to be realized, despite everything. A step forward for every step back. A holding action.

This is thankless work. So I want to say thank you.

Without activists, the world would be full of gulags, torture prisons, brutalized, silent spouses and children. Without activists, the forests would all be gone, the air fouled, the oceans dead, the glaciers and ice-cap and permafrost melted into a brown sea. Without activists, women would have no vote and no right to choose, and people of colour would have no freedom. Without activists, the books with the most important ideas in human history would be banned, or never published. Without activists, the world's children would be working in mines, and the world's adults would be working in chains. Without activists, we would all be addicted to the poisons that Big Tobacco and Big Agribiz and Big Pharma and Big Energy try to convince us we cannot live without. Without activists, the only non-human animals would be farmed animals. Without activists, the world would be awash in billions of unwanted children.

All of us must be activists, if we are to give this world a fighting chance.

What should you do? Picking your cause is just like picking the work you're meant to do, as I explain in my book Finding the Sweet Spot. This is not work for the half-hearted or easily-discouraged. So, just as in choosing the paying work that gives your life meaning, you need to identify and choose a cause that's in your 'sweet spot' -- something you love doing, and that you're good at, and that is needed in the world, and that you care about. If you are no good at it you'll get discouraged or burned out. If you don't love the cause, you'll end up disengaged. If it's not really needed, if the world's not ready for it, you'll be unappreciated and frustrated.

To find this, you must learn something about yourself, and then do some research about the world, about what's really going on, about the points of intervention that will allow you to make a difference. There are a few ideas in the brown box in the top chart above, but it's only a tiny segment of the work that needs to be done. Whether your cause is health or corruption or energy or pollution or water or food or conservation or animal welfare or urban despair or suburban sprawl or power or inequity, the process is the same: Find partners, a community of people who share your purpose and your cause and whose work and strengths complement your own, so that you get to do what you love and are good at and so that the sum of the team's work is greater than its parts.

Next, you need to be for something, not just against something. Always fighting against, as important as that work is, will drain your energy unless you also have a vision of a better way, something to replace what you're battling. So you need to be not only an informed warrier but also an innovator, an entrepreneur, a visionary.

And you need to be prepared to search insatiably and undogmatically for the truth, because ultimately that is your most powerful, and sometimes your only, weapon. Without it, your belief and passion are not enough.

You also need to be able to articulate, simply, clearly and honestly, what you believe and why. There is power in intention and strength in numbers, but you will be unable to achieve either unless you are able to convey what is, and what needs to be done, to those who are ready to listen and to make common cause with you. You cannot do it alone, and you have to pace yourself. You need to understand too that many people will not be ready for your explanation, and that your response when you meet them is to be polite and to move on, not waste your energies trying to make them believe what they are not ready to believe. You must have faith that they will come around, in time, and you or one of those you have joined in common cause will be there, then, to welcome them.

And at times you need to be ready to fight. You might think this would require courage, but if you believe in the cause, and you know it's right, fighting for it will not be hard; in your mind there will be no choice.

(What else, activists? What am I missing? Lessons from the trenches? Secrets of success?)

We must all be activists, and relentless, and patient, and brilliant at it, because as long as the majority are hopeless, there is no hope. And because we cannot fail. We cannot.

Until the day when it's no one group's turn to eat. Until there is enough for all, and more.

DrumBeat: June 30, 2009

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:08:53 GMT

Kurt Cobb: Is the United States drifting toward "war socialism"?

Jay Hansen is a well-known voice on issues of peak oil and sustainability. A systems analyst by trade, he established one of the first web sites (dieoff.org) to discuss these issues in depth in the mid-1990s. His latest web venture is a site called War Socialism on which he describes a form of governance which might become the only viable one in the coming age of scarcity unless we can muster unprecedented global cooperation to manage the decline.
By discussing "war socialism" I am not endorsing it. In fact, Hansen proposes an alternative, a global government that severely restricts human use of the global commons, that is, the natural resources upon which all of us depend. But Hansen is no lightweight. He has thought very deeply about our ecological predicament. He has tried to square what he knows about human behavior with what he believes needs to be done in the world we now face. It is clear from the organization and emphasis of his new site that he does not believe it is probable that the kind of global cooperation he would prefer will actually emerge.

China thirsty for foreign oil: Country's percentage dependency on imported oil surpassed that of the U.S. in May

China's dependence on foreign oil has surpassed that of the United States, as consumers race to the pumps to fill their new cars with gas and the country feverishly stockpiles supplies to take advantage of weak markets.
The country's increasing appetite has driven it to spend billions to acquire foreign oil producers and construct vast storage facilities to safeguard future needs. It also helps explain a rapid rise in oil prices this year, which many attribute to speculators gambling on an economic recovery.
"People trying to explain rising prices look at the West and see high inventory and low demand, so they blame speculators," said Paul Ting, president of Paul Ting Energy Vision LLC in New Jersey. "They are looking in the wrong place - demand is coming from China. And demand has been robust."

Final Words From Shell?s Departing C.E.O.

Question: Shell recently announced it was focusing its alternative investments on biofuels and you?ve been criticized for dropping out of wind and solar energy. Why this change?
Answer: From hindsight, I think we could have done better. We could have done a better communication job, including myself.
But if you look at the world, in every scenario we make, oil and gas and coal, or fossil fuels, will still account for 70 to 80 percent of demand in 30 years. Because of questions of affordability, environmental acceptability, and security, they still score fairly well compared with other forms of energy.

Gazprom expects Ukraine winter gas row

Europe may face further disruptions to its gas supply next winter if Ukraine cannot pay its gas debts to Russia, the head of Gazprom International said today.
Boris Ivanov, head of the international arm of Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom said although it was unlikely there would be problems this summer, Ukraine's severe financial crisis could lead to supply disruptions next winter when demand is greatest.

Petrobras Focuses on Costs Ahead of Rig, Platform Tenders

Brazilian state-run energy giant Petrobras continues to take a hard line on cost cuts as it prepares to launch tenders for drilling rigs and production platforms.
The tenders will likely come to market soon, Chief Financial Officer Almir Barbassa said at a meeting with reporters.
"We're in the final phase of the concession process," Barbassa said. The company is hammering out details for financing drill rigs, a complex task, the executive added.

Saudi extends hydrocracker shutdown

SINGAPORE: Saudi Aramco has further extended the shutdown of its Ras Tanura hydrocracker, after a planned early-June restart failed, prompting sales of excess cracked A961 fuel oil, trading sources said yesterday.
The state oil company is offering 90,000 tonnes of cracked A961 fuel oil for July 17-18 lifting from Ras Tanura ? its fourth such cargo in the past month, and an unusual move during the peak summer demand season, traders said.

Saudi economy to shrink 1.2 pct in 2009: bank

RIYADH (AFP) ? The Saudi economy is forecast to shrink by 1.2 percent in 2009, despite a stronger market for oil and expanded government investment, Riyadh-based Samba Bank said on Monday.
The recovery of oil prices to above 60 dollars a barrel and a forecast 24 percent hike in government spending is not enough to offset a sharp slowdown in private sector activity, the bank said in its mid-year report on the economy of the world's leading oil exporter.

ConocoPhillips, Aramco relaunch construction bidding process for Yanbu refinery

HOUSTON (AP) ? ConocoPhillips and the state-run Saudi Arabian Oil Co. said Tuesday they've revived plans to build a multibillion-dollar refinery in Saudi Arabia, citing improved economic conditions.
The companies signed a $6 billion agreement in 2006 to build the 400,000 barrel-a-day oil refinery in the kingdom's Red Sea city of Yanbu, but postponed those plans late last year as energy prices plunged.

Iraq asks oil firms to resubmits bids for fields

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq's oil minister on Tuesday asked international oil firms bidding for oil contracts to reconsider their proposals for fields the Oil Ministry had yet to strike deals on.

Iraq closes oil and gas field auction - official

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq's Oil Ministry on Tuesday ended its first auction of major oil and gas field contracts since the U.S. invasion after sealing just one deal, with a BP-led group for its biggest field, Rumaila, an official said.

Attacks cut Shell Nigeria oil output to 140,000 bpd

LAGOS (Reuters) - Attacks by Nigerian militants in recent days have cut oil output from facilities operated by Royal Dutch Shell's (RDSa.L) SPDC joint venture to around 140,000 barrels per day, a company spokesman said on Tuesday.

Disaster Transitionism

If you haven't read Naomi Klein's The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism, you really should. It's an examination of how the Chicago School of Economics and its adherents have taken advantage of or created crises to further their privatization agendas.
In country after country, free market and pro-corporate devotees have used the chaos, violence, and panic that result from periods of war or economic collapse to rapidly remove price controls, open borders to global trade, and sell off state-owned industry to multinational corporations for a fraction of their true value. In the civic vacuum that ensues when people are dropped down to the lowest levels of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, these proverbial foxes are able to raid the hen house.

Investing in durability

If you are planning to withdraw, please tell me where you're going, and send directions. If not, it's time to start thinking about how you and your family or tribe will muddle through the years ahead. One word comes to mind: durability.
If that wasn't the first word that came to your mind, I'm not surprised. Industrial culture has steered us, for the sake of economic growth, in the diametrically opposed direction for so long we usually fail to consider the obvious benefits of durability when making decisions about our own lives. It's time to change that pattern of thinking, time to start thinking about our own individual futures instead of the future of the empire.

James Lovelock: Climate war could kill nearly all of us, leaving survivors in the Stone Age

We have enjoyed 12,000 years of climate peace since the last shift from a glacial age to an interglacial one. Before long, we may face planet-wide devastation worse even than unrestricted nuclear war between superpowers. The climate war could kill nearly all of us and leave the few survivors living a Stone Age existence. But in several places in the world, including the U.K., we have a chance of surviving and even of living well.
For that to be possible, we have to make our lifeboats seaworthy now. Back in May 1940, we in the UK awoke to find facing us across the Channel a wholly hostile continental force about to invade. We were alone without an effective ally but fortunate to have a new leader, Winston Churchill, whose moving words stirred the whole nation from its lethargy: "I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears, and sweat."

The Dirty War Against Clean Coal

WHILE President Obama?s cap-and-trade proposal to reduce greenhouse gases has been the big topic of recent environmental debate, the White House has also been pushing a futuristic federal project to build a power plant that burns coal without any greenhouse gases. Sounds great, right? Except the idea is a rehash of a proposal that went bust the first time around.

'Last man standing' at wake for a toxic town

PICHER, Oklahoma (CNN) -- Wearing powder blue pants and a plaid fedora, 84-year-old Orval "Hoppy" Ray arrived fashionably late to a celebration in Picher, Oklahoma, a vacated mining town at the center of one of the nation's largest and most polluted toxic-waste sites.
Former residents, bought out by the government because their town was deemed so dangerous, gathered in Picher's elementary school to say farewell to a place where kids suffered lead poisoning, where homes built atop underground mines plunged into the Earth and where the local creek coughs up orange water, laced with heavy metals.

Why nuclear works in France

Large as the project is, it surprisingly fits into an unexpectedly human scale. The new reactor will be the third to stand on the Flamanville site, with room for a fourth later. The entire complex is wedged between cliff and water in an indentation of the coast of only 120 hectares, less than 300 acres, about the size of a small commuter airport. For a project so big it is strangely invisible, dominated by the trees and hedgerows of the farms on the higher ground above. This relatively small space produces four percent of France?s electricity, enough to power a good sized city. The fifty-eight reactors in service -- Flamanville 3 will be the fifty-ninth -- altogether produce 80% of France?s electricity. Nuclear energy in France operates almost entirely without controversy. This absence of controversy is the most exotic and puzzling thing about French nuclear power.

Energy Department will award $3.3B for smart power grids

The U.S. Department of Energy plans to unlock $3.3 billion in federal stimulus grants, as much as $200 million apiece, to companies and utilities to help develop a smarter, faster power grid.
The first round of applications is due July 29, with future rounds in December and March 2010 if money remains.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review: The Peak Oil Debate [PDF]

For the past half-century, a debate has raged over when ?peak oil? will occur?the point at which output can no longer increase and production begins to level off or gradually decline. Determining how long the oil supply will last has become even more pressing because the world?s energy supply still relies heavily on oil, and global energy demand is expected to rise steeply over the next twenty years.
This article seeks to bring the peak oil debate into focus. The author notes that a number of factors cloud the energy outlook: Estimates of remaining resources are typically given as a range of probabilities and are thus open to interpretation. Variations also occur in estimates of future oil production and in the ways countries report their reserve data.
The lack of a common definitional framework also confuses the debate. The author provides definitions of frequently used terms, delineating types of reserves and conventional versus nonconventional resources. She also discusses how technological innovations, government policies, and prices influence oil production.
Regardless of the exact timing of peak oil production, the world must address the challenge of adapting to a new model of energy supply. Perhaps the world would be better served, the author notes, if the peak oil debate could be more solution-oriented, focusing on discovering the best way to transition to a world with less conventional oil rather than locking horns about discrepancies in terminology.

Oil climbs near $72 as dollar sinks

SIOUX FALLS, S.D. - Oil prices rose to near $72 a barrel Tuesday after briefly jumping above $73 as a weakening U.S. dollar and attacks on oil installations in Nigeria helped push prices to eight-month highs.
Analysts also said prices were boosted by speculative trades and portfolio positioning by investment funds, which typically intensify at the end of a fiscal quarter.

Action needed to tap energy reserves

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain needs to do more to help industry tap the country's remaining oil and gas reserves to ensure its future energy supplies, a government committee said in a report issued on Tuesday.
High costs, low prices and lack of affordable credit in a global recession are bedevilling oil and gas companies operating in Britain, making it critical for government action to help fuel investment to maintain production, the report found.
"We are very concerned at the bleak prospects for investment in the oil and gas industry," the Energy & Climate Change Committee said in the report for Parliament.

'Role of US shale worrying gas players'

Trinidad and Tobago Energy Minister Conrad Enill said today the growing role of shale gas in the US market was one of the main concerns discussed in a meeting of gas exporting countries.

'No co-ordinated gas supply cuts yet'

The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) is not yet planning to co-ordinate supply cuts to support gas prices but sees Europe as the best market for co-ordinated action, Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said today.
The club of countries holding more than three-quarters of the world's gas reserves met on Tuesday in Qatar with global gas consumption and prices sagging in the economic downturn.

Iraqi oil licensing round runs into trouble

BAGHDAD ? Iraq's long-awaited licensing round to develop some of its massive oil reserves stumbled Tuesday as oil and gas companies dug in their heals, demanding more money for their efforts than the government was willing to pay.
International oil companies were submitting bids for six oil and two gas fields more than 30 years after Saddam Hussein nationalized the oil sector and expelled foreign firms. The televised process coincided with Iraq assuming formal control over its cities ? a step toward ending the U.S. combat role in the country.

Britain's BP, Chinese oil firm win Iraq deals

BAGHDAD (AFP) ? British energy giant BP and China's CNPC International Ltd were unveiled Tuesday as the first foreign firms in decades to win contracts to invest and develop in Iraq's war-battered energy sector.
The companies succeeded in their bid for the giant Rumaila oil field in southern Iraq, which has known reserves of 17.7 billion barrels, the oil ministry announced.

Enbridge Says Ozark Pipe to Meet 52% of July Shipping Demand

(Bloomberg) -- Enbridge Inc., Canada?s largest pipeline company, said its Ozark pipeline in the U.S. will haul about 52 percent of the crude oil requested by oil producers, traders and refiners next month.
Shippers asked to move almost 416,000 barrels of oil a day on the Ozark pipeline, which will have the capacity to transport 215,000 barrels a day in July, Larry Springer, an Enbridge spokesman, said in an e-mail today.

Byron King: The Next Saudi Arabia

The oil resources off Brazil are in the same scope as those of Saudi Arabia. The oil potential is huge. Beyond huge. It?s a game changer for the world of energy. No, the Brazilian resource doesn?t mean that Peak Oil is history. But it does mean that history is about to change. Indeed, the angel of history is favoring the nation of Brazil.

Shell defends CO2 emissions record

Oil giant Shell has defended its record on C02 emissions after an environmental group branded it the "dirtiest" producer.
Joint research by Friends of the Earth, Oil Change International and Platform claimed that Shell was neglecting its green pledges.
But the company rejected the accusation and said emissions were being cut.

Nigeria's oil pollution is resource curse: Amnesty

ABUJA (AFP) ? The pollution caused by half a century of oil extraction in Nigeria is one of the world's most disturbing examples of the curse of natural resources, a global rights lobby group said Tuesday.
Amnesty International said environmental pollution in Nigeria's southern oil region, the Niger Delta, has deprived tens of millions of people of their basic rights to safe food, clean water and good health.

Exxon to pay interest on Valdez oil spill damages

ANCHORAGE, Alaska ? Oil giant Exxon Mobil Corp. has decided not to appeal hundreds of millions of dollars in interest on punitive damages resulting from the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill.
The Irving, Texas-based company will pay about $470 million in interest on more than $507.5 million in punitive damages following the 11 million gallon spill of crude in Prince William Sound, company spokesman Tony Cudmore said Monday.

EPA relents, discloses list of high-risk coal ash sites

WASHINGTON ? The Environmental Protection Agency on Monday released a list of 44 coal-fired power plant waste sites in 10 states with a high hazard potential, including 12 sites in North Carolina , seven in Kentucky and a large storage pond in Pennsylvania .
The list is the result of an investigation that the EPA ordered after the failure of a Tennessee Valley Authority coal ash pond in Kingston, Tenn. , flooded more than 300 acres of land in December. After the spill, the EPA required electric utilities that store coal ash in surface impoundments to respond to mandatory questionnaires about their sites.

EPA to let California tighten pollution law

WASHINGTON - -- The Environmental Protection Agency will announce Tuesday that it is granting California's request to begin imposing new, tougher restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions from cars and trucks -- a decision that reverses the Bush administration and opens the way for the state to regain its role of leading the way on global warming policy.

Gallery: Electric cars get a jump-start in US bailout

The US Department of Energy has announced $8bn in support to help firms make the next generation of cars more efficient than ever before.
Although some of the money will go to improving the efficiency of conventional engines, most will be spent on electric vehicles which most auto firms now think are the best bet for making transport cleaner and greener.

Powering the future

Wolverine recently completed a 500-page analysis showing its needs, the needs for a new baseload power plant in Michigan and the possible use of renewable energy sources.
Craig Borr, executive vice president of Wolverine - which is headquartered in Cadillac - said three fuel sources are being considering: coal, petroleum coke and biomass. Wolverine?s analysis discusses the use of up to 20 percent biomass, up to 70 percent petroleum coke and up to 100 percent coal.
The state of Michigan has among the oldest power generation fleets in the nation. In 2007, the state?s fleet generated nearly 16 million MegaWatt hours from coal plants that average 53 years old. A number of the plants will have to be retired in the next two decades, according to Wolverine?s analysis.

Fed works to speed solar development in Southwest

LAS VEGAS ? The federal government's top land steward said Monday that the United States will fast-track efforts to build solar power generating facilities on public space in six Western states.
Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said he has signed an order setting aside more than 1,000 square miles of public land for two years of study and environmental reviews to determine where solar power stations should be built.

Abu Dhabi to host renewables agency

CAIRO (AFP) ? Abu Dhabi, capital of the oil-rich United Arab Emirates, will host the headquarters of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), participants said, despite criticism of its high carbon footprint.

U.S. joins International Renewable Energy Agency

WASHINGTON (Reuters) ? The United States joined the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) on Monday as part of the Obama administration's commitment to developing a new energy policy, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said.
IRENA was established in January to promote development of the renewable energy industry worldwide. To date, 135 nations have joined the global organization that will be headquartered in the United Arab Emirates.

White House, pushing conservation, announces new lighting standards

WASHINGTON (AP) - Aiming to keep the focus on climate change legislation, President Barack Obama put a plug in for administration efforts to make lamps and lighting equipment use less energy.
"I know light bulbs may not seem sexy, but this simple action holds enormous promise because 7 percent of all the energy consumed in America is used to light our homes and businesses," the president said, standing alongside Energy Secretary Steven Chu at the White House.

Top 10 green U.S. cities

Although the EPA has not established official criteria for ranking the greenness of a city, there are several key areas to measure for effectiveness in carbon footprint reduction. These include air and water quality, efficient recycling and management of waste, percentage of LEED-certified buildings, acres of land devoted to greenspace, use of renewable energy sources, and easy access to products and services that make green lifestyle choices (organic products, buying local, clean transportation methods) easy.
Mother Nature Network's editorial team rounded up their top 10:

UK. Shipping & global climate change goals report

The Environmental Audit Committee has published its report on Reducing CO2 and other emissions from shipping.... while recognising that shipping ought to do relatively well out of a carbon-constrained world, and that shipping is the most carbon-efficient mode of transport, the report expressed frustration at the slow progress that has been made towards including shipping in carbon reduction strategies.

CO2 Traders Hedging Against Climate Laws, RNK Says

(Bloomberg) -- Carbon traders will buy more option contracts this year as a hedge against new climate laws and devaluation of credits for richer nations that help cut greenhouse gas in the developing world, RNK Capital LLC said.

House Throws Away Big Money in Cap-and-Trade Bill

The number one thing you should know about this bill is that the allowances are worth big money: almost $1 trillion over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office, and more in subsequent decades.
There are many good things the government could do with that kind of money. Perhaps reduce out-of-control deficits? Or pay for expanding health coverage? Or maybe, as many economists have suggested, reduce payroll taxes and corporate income taxes to offset the macroeconomic costs of limiting greenhouse gases?
Choosing among those options would be a worthy policy debate. Except for one thing: the House bill would give away most of the allowances for free. And it spends virtually all the revenue that comes from allowance auctions.

Monbiot: Have the climate change deniers abandoned us during the heatwave?

We're still waiting. During the cold weather last winter, Gerald Warner, Peter Mullen and a host of other climate change deniers lined up to suggest that there must be something wrong with global warming theory, because some snow had fallen in Britain. Clearly they possessed the mystical ability to divine a long-running global climate trend from a single regional weather event. This clairvoyance could be very useful to climate researchers, so I hoped they would continue to favour us with their insights.
But, to general wailing and gnashing of teeth, they appear suddenly to have abandoned us. Where are these oracles, now that we need to consult them about the current weather event? If a single cold snap in the UK persuades them that global warming isn't happening, then a single heatwave in the same place must surely convince them that it is. Logic would dictate that the world must now be destined for a century of heating ? until the next cold snap, whereupon it is obviously destined once more for a century of cooling.

Seagrass losses can cause global coastal crisis

SYDNEY: A study which will be published in the US journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences suggests that seagrass, vital for the survival of endangered marine life, commercial fisheries and the fight against climate change, is reaching a dangerous low.
A global study of seagrass, which can absorb large amounts of planet-warming carbon dioxide, found that 29 percent of the world's known seagrass had disappeared since 1879 and the losses were accelerating.

Biochar: can charcoal really stop global warming?

Biochar - the charcoaled remains of agricultural waste - is being hailed as a huge opportunity to reduce the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. But is the science sound, and do we have enough waste to go around?

CLIMATE CHANGE: 2020 Deadline Is the Crucial "Litmus Test"

Manfred Konukiewitz, deputy director-general of Germany's Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development and who is involved in the Copenhagen climate negotiations, was more optimistic: "There will be an agreement on emission reductions targets by 2050."
Specifically, industrialised countries need to agree to emissions reductions of 80 percent from 1990 levels, and China and India must also agree to substantial reductions by 2050, Konukiewitz said. However, agreement on commitments to reductions by 2020 is what is most important in Copenhagen, he said.
"That is the litmus test if we are serious about addressing climate change," Konukiewitz stressed.

Global food supply seen far from secure

GENEVA (Reuters) - Africa's farmers need help to access loans, fertiliser and export markets to avoid future food supply crises caused by climate change and commodities speculation, a top agricultural expert said on Tuesday.
Wheat, rice and maize prices have fallen sharply from their 2008 highs, when protests broke out across the developing world over unaffordable staple foods and countries imposed export bans to ensure their people had enough to eat.
Akinwumi Adesina of the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa, an aid group headed by former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, said commodity markets dampened by recession were serving to mask "the next storm."

US EPA sets hourly standard for nitrogen dioxide emissions

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 02:08:16 GMT

Washington (Platts) -- 29Jun2009 -- A US Environmental Protection Agency proposal released Monday set the first-ever hourly national air quality standard (NAAQS) for nitrogen dioxide at between 80 parts per billion and 100 ppb. The standard...

US Supreme Court won't hear ruling blocking Illinois coal plant

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 02:08:16 GMT

Washington (Platts) -- 29Jun2009 -- The US Supreme Court on Monday said it would not hear a power plant developer's appeal of a lower court ruling that blocked it from building a 534-MW coal-fired plant in southern Illinois. A US appeals...

Platts Broker-Based Indexes for Coal and Emissions for June 29

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 02:08:16 GMT

Washington (Platts) -- 29Jun2009 -- Platts weekly broker emissions indexes, along with its monthly broker emissions indexes and the daily OTC coal broker indexes are posted here so all market participants can evaluate our results. Our "Methodology...

Obama 'confident' Senate can pass climate bill to match House

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 02:08:16 GMT

Washington (Platts) -- 29Jun2009 -- US President Barack Obama on Monday praised leaders of the House of Representatives for helping pass an energy and climate change bill and said he is "confident" the Senate will pass similar legislation...

Platts Broker-Based Indexes for Coal and Emissions for June 25

Sat, 27 Jun 2009 00:31:12 GMT

Washington (Platts) -- 25Jun2009 -- Platts weekly broker emissions indexes, along with its monthly broker emissions indexes and the daily OTC coal broker indexes are posted here so all market participants can evaluate our results. Our "Methodology...

AEP, Southern quit FutureGen clean-coal project

Sat, 27 Jun 2009 00:31:12 GMT

Washington (Platts) -- 26Jun2009 -- The Obama administration committed to a major clean-coal project earlier in June despite knowing that two of its biggest industry partners--American Electric Power and Southern Company--were planning to...